India, US and Pakistan : Tale of a choatic democracy, a super power and a rogue nation

There is a striking difference in the way Israel and India handled their response to terror attacks. While the former is an example of extreme response, which is not justified, the latter is an example of inaction. In both cases the reason for the attacks, and who is right and who is not, is rather complicated. I am not condoning the attacks either in India or Israel, both are highly despicable and the perpetrators should be punished to the maximum. However, the driving force behind these attacks are rather complicated, which elements in Palestine and in Pakistan have used to take advantage. Both involve a land dispute where both sides feel they are on the right side and also involve impoverished populations who think they are justified in their terror tactics.

While Israel is killing civilians for the act of a few, India is constrained by the same consideration (also, the power disparity between India and Pakistan is not the same as Israel and Palestine). It would be a fool's errand to start a war against Pakistan for the actions of LeT, JeM etc. But, lest we forget, Pakistani Govt is equally culpable. This begs the question, how should India handle the current situation when

a) Pakistan claims that the attackers are non-state actors, thereby acquitting itself of any responsibility
b) It is not ready to take any action against these so called non-state actors despite knowing their location.
c) Not willing to accept that the Mumbai attacks were carried out by pakistanis inspite of overwhelming evidence.
d) Has safe havens for all kind of terrorists in parts of its territory where it necessarily doesn't have any control. It also doesn't want other countries which are victims of these terrorists' actions to take any action either. A very convenient excuse indeed.
e) Not ready to give up terrorists like Dawood Ibrahim who are directly implicated in earlier attacks. If this is not a safe haven for a terrorist, then what is?
f) Pakistan Govt doesn't have control over either its military or its intelligence service.

Furthermore, a financially bankrupt country with a very feudal and dysfunctional society, Pakistan has nothing much to lose in case of a war with India and hence it threatens with a nuclear attack very easily knowing fully well that it will be the one that will be obliterated in such an exchange. Pakistan fully knows that India has a lot more to lose as a country in such an exchange. Given this background, what are the options left to India?

India has rightfully kept all third parties out of the Kashmir issue. However, we should at the same time wonder if any solution that India might negotiate with the Pakistani Govt will hold without the involvement of its military/intelligence agencies (its military vetoed Zardari's promise ISI's chief will come to India in a day). Any negotiation with Pakistan should involve its military for the same reason. Since the only power which holds any sway with the Pakistani military is US, it might have to at some point get involved to underwrite the whole treaty. For this reason, all the talk about soft diplomacy, back door diplomacy and its all other connotations are moot. There is no point in India signing a treaty with Pakistani Govt which is toothless without a stake from Pak military.

With China ready to use Pakistan to slow down India and get us tied down in South Asia, and US willing to turn a blind eye towards Pakistan's involvement in every other terrorist activity, the odds are stacked against India. It requires years of diplomatic effort to first isolate Pakistan and then squeeze it when it really hurts. This requires that India should always be on the look out for such an opportunity, instead of getting carried away with brotherhood sentimentality that affects our politicians so easily. A long memory and a ruthless pursuit of our interests are what is needed from India's side. (No, Narendra Modi is not an answer).

India should use all its diplomatic clout (for whatever its worth) to hold Pakistan accountable for every penny of loan or aid it gets from IMF, World Bank and other donors. These institutions shouldn't be subsidizing the terror acts in India. Much of the money Pakistan gets is anyways diverted to ISI and military.

It is not an easy situation for India and it cannot (and should not) be cavalier like Israel. This should not, however, mean that the Indian politicians blame the complication to absolve themselves of their incompetence.