Mumbai - Tackling Terror

We are going through strong emotions after witnessing an attack on one of our cities for three full days on live TV. The impulse for immediate retribution is very high. In this time of mourning and rage, what could be a sustainable and successful strategy on the part of India, to root out this scourge. There are many challenges in dealing with terrorism in our country. Brijesh has put forth a few challenges, not surely exhaustive, but a good start here. We have to come up with ways to tackle this in the short term, medium term and long term. The long term solutions should attack the root cause of this. The medium term should address the systemic bottle necks and structure feeding to this problem and the short term should focus on preventing attacks in the immediate future. These are some of the things i feel can be done by the Govt of India to address these issues.

Short Term

1) Strengthen the Law Enforcement forces: The first thing that was quite apparent from this attack was the inadequacy of police and Rapid action forces. They were in short supply of much needed equipment, basic and advanced. It took 9 hours for NSG commandos to reach the spot. Mind you, its Mumbai we are talking about, not some remote Indian village. They have to be retrained to tackle urban warfare, including hostage situations. India should also collaborate with Israel, who have mastery of tackling terrorism within its cities, and learn from them. This would prevent precious lives being lost in the initial stages of any attack.

2) Give Independent Authority to Law Enforcement: Our police model, based on British Raj era laws, work as a tool for the politicians instead of the people. The police should be given independent authority, but with strict oversight by the parliament (No one wants a police state). It should not be a tool of local MLAs and petty politicians. Also, the pay commission should increase the pay level of our policemen to reflect reality. The more dangerous law enforcement job is, the higher should be their pay. After all, they too have a family to take care of. If the average income of a police constable is going to be aroung 6-8K PM in a city like Mumbai, it is ridiculous to expect them not to take any bribe.

Medium Term

1) Make education until 12th standard Mandatory and improve school system: This will be one giant step in the right direction to prevent gullible and uneducated from falling prey to corrupt politicians and religious leaders. Yes, i do see that there are educated people from UK involved in terrorism too. But those a few cases who get carried away, but most involved are people studying in madrasas which give free education to those who cannot afford good education.

2) Work to Dismantle ISI: It is time India works with the other countries and force Pakistan to dismantle ISI. It has created havoc in this neighborhood, and has made its own country unstable. It is well known that Pakistan diverts much of the aid it gets to military and intelligence, while starving its population of any meaningful service. India should work hard with other countries to force Pakistan to dismantle this, especially right now when its the most vulnerable. Its fiscal situation is so weak its running from pillar to post asking for money. It cannot be a beneficiary of international largesse and at the same time be the source of every terrorist act in this part of the world.

Long Term

1) Resolve Kashmir ASAP: A reasonable, mutually acceptable solution to kashmir will save a lot of money that we are now pouring in there, to focus on terrorists elsewhere. Given the mutual mistrust between the groups involved in kashmir, it is going to be very difficult. But it is time we bring in out of the box solutions. Let us be clear, Kashmir cannot be independent. That cannot happen. Either it will go bankrupt in 2 days or will be gobbled up by pakistan (lets not rule out china). The solution should be give and take on the part of India and pakistan.

2) Bring Uniform Civil Code: This must be one of the top priorities in our country right now. Having different laws for people within the same country is ridiculous. If India is truly a secular country, then it must be one where the law is the same for everyone. I don't see it as trampling on any particular religious group's rights, since they derive their rights within the Indian constitution for being Indian, not for belonging to a particular religion. Bringing Uniform Civil Code will go a long way in erasing the differences between Hindus, Muslims etc., as sanctioned by law.

3)Make the growth inclusive: This is perhaps the most important part. Its not just about Hindu and Muslim problem, if left as it is now, it will be North South (like in Marathis vs North Indians) or Urban and Rural divide.

There are more nuanced policy issues that Govt of India can take that might make a difference. But I am not sure if our politicians have the political will or moral fortitude to get it done. One thing is for sure, bombing Pakistan right away or going to war with them, or bringing out policies that alienate the 140 odd million muslims of our country, though instantly gratifying for some, would only exacerbate the situation.

BJP - how cheap can it ?

When the brave commandos, RAF, police officer and fire officers were still fighting to save as many hostages as possible, some politicians couldn't resist the temptation the opportunity to use this tragedy for their personal political gains. Narendra Modi, shameless as he is, i never thought would stoop down so much for his political ambitions. He goes to a neighboring state, where even the chief minister didn't visit the sites which would distract the police and have them worry about his safety, to the site and makes stump speeches with award money. All during which commandos and hostages' life were still in danger. I find it hard to understand the support this demagouge gets from some of my educated friends who are rightfully disillusioned with our politicians. To me he has always been a shameless, communal, power hungry, selfish politician and this incident only confirmed this to me.

How fittingly appropriate that Hemant Karake's wife refused to take the one crore from Narendra Modi.

The next thing that struck me was when L.K.Advani decided not to visit Mumbai along with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who had wanted to show a united front against terrorism. Instead BJP decided to use this tragedy, while it was still unraveling, to run newspaper ads against the government. Beyond shameless!

(Before you start crowing that i am siding with congress party, please re-read the article once again).

Desis with Dollars, check this out

Peter Schiff's prediction for the last two years



His prediction on currency




Gold and Dollar

Hmm...

Velila pora onnana eduthu vetila vita kathai - American edition

The 7 Trillion Dollar Man

when those generous banks go bankrupt
when those poor millionaires are down on luck
when those leftist noble laureates are stunned abrupt,
and those unionized workers suck our blood
here comes henry paulson,
OMG, dude's so freakin' awesome
he isn't one in a million
he is "the one" with 7.6 trillion

Thanks to Abhishek who put this together from our IM conversation.

Malls and More

With powercuts being what they are in India, Tamilnadu right now is in such a state that there is mandatory powercuts daily even in Chennai daily, does it make sense to have American Style Malls? In my thinking malls are one of the most wasteful ways to promote commerce. Given the heat in India, huge buildings which won't use Sunlight to light up but use up all sorts of lighting even during daytime. Air-conditioning the whole building, instead of just the individual shops is even more power consuming.
When we cannot provide 24 hours electricity even to industry to keep up production, the rationale for these huge electrified caverns are as ridiculous as building a ski resort in Dubai. The oil money has made the sheikhs reckless with money, but we mimicking US will only lead to further deteriorate the power situation in India.

Some interesting reads
This one is from Pakistan. It blew my mind. Before we all thump our chests about our great culture and how backward Pakistan is, let us realize that we aren't far behind.
From Outlook India

Hymenoplasty or restoration of ruptured hymen is sought after because of the importance Pakistani men attach to marrying virgins
The rising demand for it is proof of the society’s sexual liberation
Total cost: Rs 40,000; time taken for surgery: 30 minutes to two hours
Post surgery, the person must wait for three months to have sex. Intercourse leads to bleeding.
In the West, though, women resort to hymenoplasty to pep up their sex lives. It costs $2,000.

I had earlier asked a question here asking if we should be investing in real estate in India right now. I think here is some answer.
From Economic Times

Property prices across the country have seen a correction by 20 to 40 per cent, Rohtash Goel, chairman Omaxe Developers and president of the National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO) told reporters here.

"We are asking our members to reduce rates. The reduction will be up to 5 per cent for existing projects, 10 per cent on new projects and 15 per cent for the affordable housing section," Goel told reporters.

In my opinion, this correct is still modest compared to the bubble we saw happen in this industry. There is still more weight to be shed. There is no reason why a plot of land in a place more than 1 hour outside chennai (or any major metro) without any roads, watersupply, decent electricity, schools or bus service should cost 20-25 lakhs.


This is exciting for space buffs. The Red planet has water and it apparently even snows up (or is it down) there.

The recently departed Phoenix lander dug up water ice and even spotted falling snow from its position in the northern polar plains. And now data from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter point to vast glaciers buried beneath thin layers of crustal debris, much closer to the equator.

The findings, published today in Science, come from the spacecraft's shallow radar, or SHARAD, which is able to penetrate the surface and examine what lies beneath. In this case, SHARAD indicated that two long-visible mid-latitude features, one of which is roughly three times the size of Los Angeles, are almost completely composed of water ice.

Democrats : The party of Wusses

You have to give it to the Democrats to show their mettle(or lack thereof). Now, lets all get ready to sing Kumbaya with Republicans and wish Global warming, Financial crisis and the 100 things that has to be dealt with just goes away.

Joe Libermann not only gets to caucus with the democrats, he gets to keep his chairmanship of the Senate Homeland Security Committee as well. Just goes to show how ridiculous all this media comparison of Obama and Lincoln is.

Driven by Idealogy Stuck in mythology

Most of us have seen Anniyan. If we forget the ridiculous heroism and stunts, the heart of the issue the movie addresses is Apathy that is ubiquitous in our society. Apathy is probably the one common thing amongst us Indians. We are not even surprised, let alone outraged, any more about anything. Incompetence is ok. Corruption is the name of the game. Social injustice is a fact of life. If our's is any less apathetic, it wouldn't be so unequal. Is this a cultural thing? Does our society not let us fight back against these injustices?

When i tried to look back at what ideas our society has offered to address these issues, it is usually with an avatar coming to the rescue. Though, at some level, its comforting to know (do we really know?) there is a higher power waiting to come to our rescue during hardtimes, it shouldn't absolve anyone from doing their duty to fight against it. That is where i think the concept of Karma, and doing your duty without thinking about the rewards come into the picture. When put together these ideas provide a frame work for Indian thought. As with most of things from our heritage, we have all forgotten about the real meaning and we hold on to strands of ideas and fail to remember that these were parts of a whole.


Our mythologies, which started as a way to store and pass on ideas to generations ahead morphed into glorification and deification of personalities. Repeating the theme i discussed here, Is Gita important because of the profound ideas in it, or just because it was (supposedly) spelt out by Lord Krishna? Is Krishna important or the idea (Gita) he stood for? This practice of deification instantly kills any inspiration to an average citizen to fight back any real and perceived injustices. Take the case of Gandhiji. He was not perfect, not even close. But he always tried to be a man of conviction and of principles. This is something every human should be aspiring to be, and perhaps most of us can be. However, by tagging him with the Mahatma title, he suddenly becomes something more than human. It gives an incentive to an average person to throw up his arms and claim,'i am not a Mahatma'. How many times we have heard that, 'I am not Mahatma', to justify everything. This tendency for us to absolve ourselves of any responsibility claiming that one has to be larger than life, a Mahatma to do anything and wait for a (false) savior (e.g., MGR, NTR, now chiranjeevi, maybe Rajini. This is not to say North Indian states are beyond these, but rather i am not well versed with their politics) to redeem the citizenary from their misfortune is to me the single biggest reason for most of the ills in our society.






I reasonably believe that the above picture captures the interlink between our thought and the culture we live in. This has led me to question whether our mythological history, instead of goading us to fight against injustices, is one of the main reasons for our apathy that has seeped deep into our psyche. Just to see how popular cinema, the only medium which most of us Indians have access to, handles such issues in contemporary world, i compared Shankar's movies (right from Gentleman to Anniyan) and Mani Ratnam's Ayutha Ezhuthu (yuva). Everytime Shankar takes up a social issue to address, he goes back to the mythological playbook and creates a modern day avatar who is all powerful and all knowing who changes the system all by himself. He has never ever tried an alternative theme or a new solution. I don't know if its subconscious or deliberate. All those movies were superhits. On the other hand, Mani Ratnam offers a solution that eventhough is difficult, is atleast possible and the only one that is sustainable in the long run (i.e., pushing the locals to take charge of their own destiny). Though he also had to make his protoganist a very smart idealist, he only uses that role to push the citizens to understand their own rights. To my dismay, this movie didn't do that well in the box office. I understand that i cannot read too much into this to jump to a conclusion. But does it not atleast say something about us? Just wondering....

Must read

For anyone who is even remotely interested in the current crisis, this piece by Michael Lewis is an absolute Must Read . Absolutely gripping. Here is a sample from the piece,

And short Eisman did—then he tried to get his mind around what he’d just done so he could do it better. He’d call over to a big firm and ask for a list of mortgage bonds from all over the country. The juiciest shorts—the bonds ultimately backed by the mortgages most likely to default—had several characteristics. They’d be in what Wall Street people were now calling the sand states: Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada. The loans would have been made by one of the more dubious mortgage lenders; Long Beach Financial, wholly owned by Washington Mutual, was a great example. Long Beach Financial was moving money out the door as fast as it could, few questions asked, in loans built to self-destruct. It specialized in asking home­owners with bad credit and no proof of income to put no money down and defer interest payments for as long as possible. In Bakersfield, California, a Mexican strawberry picker with an income of $14,000 and no English was lent every penny he needed to buy a house for $720,000.

More generally, the subprime market tapped a tranche of the American public that did not typically have anything to do with Wall Street. Lenders were making loans to people who, based on their credit ratings, were less creditworthy than 71 percent of the population. Eisman knew some of these people. One day, his housekeeper, a South American woman, told him that she was planning to buy a townhouse in Queens. “The price was absurd, and they were giving her a low-down-payment option-ARM,” says Eisman, who talked her into taking out a conventional fixed-rate mortgage. Next, the baby nurse he’d hired back in 1997 to take care of his newborn twin daughters phoned him. “She was this lovely woman from Jamaica,” he says. “One day she calls me and says she and her sister own five townhouses in Queens. I said, ‘How did that happen?’ ” It happened because after they bought the first one and its value rose, the lenders came and suggested they refinance and take out $250,000, which they used to buy another one. Then the price of that one rose too, and they repeated the experiment. “By the time they were done,” Eisman says, “they owned five of them, the market was falling, and they couldn’t make any of the payments.”

....

As an investor, Eisman was allowed on the quarterly conference calls held by Moody’s but not allowed to ask questions. The people at Moody’s were polite about their brush-off, however. The C.E.O. even invited Eisman and his team to his office for a visit in June 2007. By then, Eisman was so certain that the world had been turned upside down that he just assumed this guy must know it too. “But we’re sitting there,” Daniel recalls, “and he says to us, like he actually means it, ‘I truly believe that our rating will prove accurate.’ And Steve shoots up in his chair and asks, ‘What did you just say?’ as if the guy had just uttered the most preposterous statement in the history of finance. He repeated it. And Eisman just laughed at him.”

“With all due respect, sir,” Daniel told the C.E.O. deferentially as they left the meeting, “you’re delusional.”
This wasn’t Fitch or even S&P. This was Moody’s, the aristocrats of the rating business, 20 percent owned by Warren Buffett. And the company’s C.E.O. was being told he was either a fool or a crook by one Vincent Daniel, from Queens.

Dragon Waketh, Elephant Sleepeth

Dragon goes offensive

China has unveiled one of the boldest moves by any country to tackle the fallout of the current financial crisis on its economy . Its 586 billion dollar stimulus will be spent in developing infrastructure (from NYTIMES)

At a time when major infrastructure projects are being put off around the world, China said it would spend an estimated $586 billion over the next two years — roughly 7 percent of its gross domestic product each year — to construct new railways, subways and airports and to rebuild communities devastated by an earthquake in the southwest in May.

There have been dire prognostications for china from a variety of sources following the current credit crisis including Roubini.

Note that China is an economy is structurally dependent on exports: net exports (or the trade balance surplus) are close to 12% of GDP (up from 2% earlier in the decade) and exports represent about 40% of GDP. Real investment in China is about 45% of GDP and, leaving aside the part of this investment that is housing and infrastructure spending, about half of this capex spending goes towards the production of new capital goods that produces more exportable goods. So, with the sum of exports and investment representing about 80% of GDP, most of Chinese aggregate demand depends on its ability to sustain an export based economic growth.

The trouble –however – is that the main outlet of Chinese exports – the U.S. consumer – is now collapsing for the first time in two decades. Chinese exports to the U.S. were growing at an annualized rate of over 20% a year ago; while the most recent bilateral trade data from the U.S. now show that this export growth has now fallen down to 0%. But the worst is still to come in the next few quarters: after an ok second quarter in the U.S. (boosted by the tax rebates) U.S. retailers hoped that the consumer downturn would be minor: they thus placed over the summer massive orders for Chinese (and other imported) goods for Q3 and Q4. But now the U.S. holiday season clearly looks like the worst that the U.S. will experience in decades and the result of it will be a huge overhang of unsold Chinese good. Thus, you can expect that orders of Chinese goods for Q1 of 2009 and the rest of 2009 will be sharply down dragging Chinese exports to the U.S. into sharply negative territory. And it is not just Chinese exports to the U.S.: until a few months ago the U.S. was starting to contract but the rest of the advanced economies (Europe, Canada, Japan and Australia/New Zealand) were growing at a sustained rate, thus boosting Chinese exports. But there is now strong evidence that a severe recession has now started in almost all of the advanced economies. You can thus expect that Chinese export growth to Europe, Canada, Japan, etc. will sharply decelerate in the next few quarters, thus adding to the fall in Chinese net exports.

Its interesting to see China to be so pro-active and push in so much money to stimulate its economy by investing in infrastructure which will only add to further gains when all this mess is sorted out. This is being done when China has already invested large sums in infrastructure for its SEZs and for Olympics.

Defensive Elephant


Closer home, though woefully inadequate in its infrastructure, India is still dragging its feet in coming up with a comprehensive infrastructure development proposal. Even if India spends one-tenth of the amount China is planning to spend to develop its roads, water supply, ports, railway and airports, it would go a long way in overcoming some of our shortcomings. At the sametime this would provide jobs to a lot of people outside of the IT industry. But what i would like to see is for Montek Singh, P Chidambaram and Manmohan Singh to use this opportunity to be even more aggressive.This way they won't be just stimulating our economy, they would be creating millions of non-IT jobs and lay down an environment where our manufacturing industry can thrive. But at this point, i am not holding my breath.

Double Take

Note: This is my first attempt at satire.

A conversation over heard outside Raj Tackarey's office right after Supreme Court gave its judgment:

Raj: "We should take our agitation against these North Indians to the next level. "

Raj : "Any Ideas?"

Apparatchiks start thinking hard. Clock starts ticking. Minutes pass by.......

Apparatchik 1: (With gleaming eyes) " We should show how Marathi Manoos are affected economically because the North Indians end up with a lot of our money."

Raj : "How?"

Apparatchik 1: "We print all this money here in Nashik and it is ours. This Reserve Bank comes and distributes this to North Indians leaving little for Marathi Manoos. We should agitate against this socialism."

Apparatchik 2: " What is printed in Maharastra stays in Maharastra."

Apparatchik 3: " Marathi money for Marathis!"

Raj : "Excellent. Tomorrow we start our agitation against the Reserve Bank and North Indians using money printed in Maharastra. All our Manoos will be behind us. We will ask for an end to this state sponsored socialism."



Meanwhile, down south in Tamil Nadu, Karunanidhi with his astrologer recommended yellow shawl firmly on his shoulders, chastised Hindus for wearing a Tilak and said it did not make sense to his "rational" mind.

Wonder how a meeting between a yellow shawl sporting "rationalist" and Tilak sporting Marathi Manoo would go.

Glad I am Wrong

This is one time i am so glad i have been proven wrong, thanks a big part to Sarah Palin who i had, it seems, greatly over-estimated.

Republican View : 3 examples

As the election day come closer a quick look at some of the Republican Propaganda looks like real life version of Animal Farm.

1) Global Warming and Energy Independence


2) On Tax Cuts (removing the Bush cuts to Rich and giving it to middle income people) - just watch the middle and poor income morons (only they would come to such campaign events, not the rich) supporting something that is bad for them:


3) Unfounded Accusations: