Desis: What are our options during this recession

All of us already know that we are going through one of the biggest global financial turmoil in a long long time. Governments across the world are trying to address this with pumping huge sums of money into their economies. However, these measures have been inadequate. There have been job losses across fields in almost every country. Given that US is one of the severely hit countries, within which tech sector is one of the biggest casualties, what does the outlook look like for us desis who are employed mostly in this field.

Before going any further let me make it clear that this post is just to throw my thoughts to hopefully start a conversation which might throw light and make us understand the risks and opportunities in our immediate and distant future.

The US economy is on a downward spiral as consumers here tighten their belts and since 70% of US economy depends on consumption there is a positive feedback of bad news. As more people get laid off, the less they consume leading to more businesses going bust. Also, the US was flush with cheap credit for the past 5-6 years and there was mindless consumption. Even if the economy recovers in a period 2-3 years there is no reason to believe that things would go back to 2006-2007 level consumption. And we desis typically are in the tech side which are in many cases based on the consumer products (like cell phones and other gadgets) or discretionary spending.

Given this situation what can we do to get through this recession? From my perspective, we have three options in the long term. The short term strategy of moving to a consultant (if you lose your FT position) is ok if one holds an optimistic view.
1) Go back to school to upgrade our skills.
2) Go back to India
3) Hope for the best.
Let us look each of them in a little detail.

Back to School: This is the best option if one is not married yet. There are a number of new skills one can learn to be ready. This is very important for us in the tech field. No matter how much you think you know, there is a need for updating oneself throughout the career. But there are a few considerations.
1) Given the budget cuts all across, the universities aren't going to have funds to provide scholarships. So most likely fees is going to be from our pockets.
2) How easy is it for us to jump between H1 to F1 and back to H1. I don't think its as easy as many would like to think.
3) Which field to do? Many desis think of MBA immediately. However is it such a great idea? Many Americans take to MBAs anyways and due to this downturn there will be a huge number of MBA grads who will be coming out at the same time. Also, people graduating out now will most likely be unemployed or underemployed during this period. So, is it wise to take on so much debt or burn all of our savings during this lean period on MBA?
4) Many out there are not Ph.d material, nor are many in the mindset to put another 3-5 years in school just based on this downturn.

However, if one is financially well settled without many responsibilities at this point, this is probably the best time to get your MBA or any additional degree or certification. If one has a family to support (either here or in India) or not on a firm footing financially, venturing into another degree, putting oneself without a source of income for another two years is pretty risky.

Go back to India: This is considered to be the worst case scenario by many desis (who ever goes back?). But i am not sure if this is the worst case scenario. This is a good option if we have a decent offer back home (i understand the a decent offer means different things to different people). Instead of spending our hard earned savings to get through this pretty long recession without a job (especially if one has to support a family), this would be a better option. One can keep earning, gain more experience. Once we have more experience (if you have a masters or if you already have GC) we can always come back when the market moves up. With most of us being in the tech field, finding that decent offer is the biggest obstacle since our IT industry is solely dependent on production support kinda roles for the MNCs in US and Europe. How our IT industry would do over the next 2 or 3 years if the state of the economy deteriorates further in the US and Europe is anybody's guess. I would think even if there are no job cuts, there would be severe pressure on the pay scale. I believe the days of unheard of pays and pay hikes (in Indian context) would become a thing of the past. But if one is from a pure EE field and can get in one of the research centers, the probability of losing the job is much less though the kind of research being done might not be exactly on par with the work being done here. All in all, personally i favor this option of keeping my savings and gaining experience over sitting here without a job and not ready to spend on education.

Hope for the best: This is the option most of us after a lot of thinking and anguishing would take, not because of logical reasoning, but because it is the easiest. It is so much easier to postpone tougher decisions for later than to make them now. What many would reason is to have a project for at least 4 to 6 months a year for the next 2 years and live off of that income. This might be the one many would be hoping for. But this strategy is based on the assumption that things would get ok within two years. However, it 2 took years for the economy to come back on track after the 2001 tech bust. But what has happened now is bigger and deeper than anything that happened in 2001 and this time almost every field is severely hit. So I am not sure how prudent it is to use this as an example.

All in all, in my opinion, going to school if possible after thinking hard on the field is the best option in the short and long term if feasible. With a family and if GC is available, starting to look at opportunities in India would be prudent. This would bring down the expense, give the children a taste of India. The third option though looks like best of both the worlds, it is on a longer term the worst option. It might end up putting one in a back foot since one does not learn anything new, nor gain relevant experience and in the worst case might end up losing the savings too.

Furthermore, it is not easy to save in this country, especially if only one is working in a household. Brijesh has given the general picture of this here.