Yeah, Right!

Pak and its Promises. From TimesofIndia:

Pakistan has said concerns that US arms it is seeking will be used against India are "misplaced" and Islamabad now understands that the "primary threat to our homeland today is not from our neighbor to the east" but from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on the western border.

Financial Crisis - Sovereign Defaults and Dollars

This is a very interesting article from Telegraph. The implications of the article are dire.

Unless this capital is forthcoming, a clutch of countries will prove unable to roll over their debts at a bearable cost. Those that cannot print money to tide them through, either because they no longer have a national currency (Ireland, Club Med), or because they borrowed abroad (East Europe), run the biggest risk of default

...

US hedge fund Hayman Advisers is betting on the biggest wave of state bankruptcies and restructurings since 1934. The worst profiles are almost all in Europe – the epicentre of leverage, and denial. As the IMF said last week, Europe's banks have written down 17pc of their losses – American banks have swallowed half.
"We have spent a good part of six months combing through the world's sovereign balance sheets to understand how much leverage we are dealing with. The results are shocking," said Hayman's Kyle Bass.

...

A disturbing number of states look like Iceland once you dig into the entrails, and most are in Europe where liabilities average 4.2 times GDP, compared with 2pc for the US. "There could be a cluster of defaults over the next three years, possibly sooner," he said.
Research by former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff and professor Carmen Reinhart found that spasms of default occur every couple of generations, each time shattering the illusions of bondholders. Half the world succumbed in the 1830s and again in the 1930s.

...

The author concludes by saying that Europe will be a backwater at the end of this (in a few short years) and we might truly end up with a bipolar (at least economically) with China and US - G2 Nations according to him, leading the world albeit the US with a much diminished role compared to its peak.

It's well worth reading the whole article.

How much of it turns out to be true is to be seen, however much of what has been said has sound reasoning. US - with dollar being the reserve currency, might be able to print (dollars) its way out of this mess. What this does to the dollar is not difficult to guess. Given the massive debt that US has to raise in the short term, and since most emerging markets are in a turmoil of their own, US might have to pay more interest on it's treasuries. Many analysts say one of the most likely ways US will be repaying this debt (if it doesn't default) is by debt inflation. With China making noise about moving out of dollar (it is already having bilateral deals with close to a dozen countries to trade in Yuan instead of dollar) as a reserve currency, how long dollar can sustain without getting severely devalued is to be seen. However, in the short term, since China holds trillions in dollar holdings it wouldn't do anything radical to upset the value of dollar. But, it will not be easy for the US either to run huge deficits like it used and finance it with its treasury notes.

It might be a completely different world in just 10 years from now. (If the holes in Pensions funds, Social Security, Medicare are all taken into account with the baby boomers approaching their retirement age, it makes the picture even worse.)

How it affects us, our lives, our jobs, Indian economy, the geo-political scene is what i am really interested in. As and when i find analysis around this topic, i will be regularly updating it here.

Srilankan Crisis - A more nuanced view

Here are a couple of articles that give a better idea of whats happening in Srilanka. Both are from Guardian.

First one - Sri Lanka's Divided Demonstrators:-

The well-organised and orchestrated public demonstrations belie the fact that many diaspora Tamils have been coerced into marching under LTTE flags. Many wishing to carry placards appealing to both the GoSL and the LTTE have been beaten and intimidated into marching only under anti-GoSL slogans. This has resulted in a one-sided protest campaign that ignores the fact that civilians trapped in the "no-fire zone" are held hostage by the LTTE, who shoot those seeking to escape, plant suicide bombers among escapees and conscript civilian children to fight alongside them. This has made it impossible for Sri Lankan peace activists to declare their solidarity with the demonstrators.


Sri Lankan activists have also had to contend with an authoritarian GoSL which, like all modern regimes, only allows embedded journalists access to war zones and displacement camps, and also intimidates, arrests, disappears and murders those who question the legitimacy of the war. Nor does it have a clear set of political proposals that address Tamil grievances.

Second One -
Tamils Have Nowhere to Turn :

The Tamils have suffered terribly both at the hands of the LTTE and successive Sinhala-dominated governments. Reconciliation with them will take a government that has greater reverence for secularism than the present one. Sri Lankans have become inured to the pervasive Sinhala-supremacist racism and religious bigotry that the present government has brought to Sri Lanka.

It is this racism and bigotry more than any passionate belief in the LTTE that has now pushed a desperate Tamil community towards the LTTE.

Indeed, it is an insult to the Tamil people that all they have to represent their cause for emancipation are the Tamil Tigers. A group that not only systematically eliminated the political leadership of the Sri Lankan Tamils but wiped out the entire moderate Sinhala leadership and prevented Tamils from voting in elections.

Both the articles are well worth a read.

Various Points

After yet another hiatus, which is becoming ever more frequent, here is another attempt to kick start regular posting.

Let me save posts that require single-minded attention for later. Here is a collage of interesting tidbits:

• For people interested in Indian Politics, Brijesh Nair has updates regularly at his blog. He is also conducting some interesting state specific polls too. Here you can predict the winners of each constituency in Tamil Nadu.


• Shane Warne - chanakya, Drona and Arjuna all rolled into one, and his team had a bad start to IPL, which was a little surprising. But, this time Rajasthan Royals are sure missing last year's stalwarts like Sohail Tanvir and Shane Watson. Also, the conditions in SA might not be suited for everyone to throw their bat around. So, it would be interesting to see if Shane Warne's magic (in captaincy, his wizardry of leg spin can never be questioned) works.


• Even as i have noted my disgust at the faux outrage and chest beating by our countrymen over Slumdog Millionaire here. I find little to no noise from the same crowd when a news like Rubina put for adoption for a lot of money by her father is out. Disgusted at our apathy to real suffering? Yes. Outraged at our faux outrage on reel issues? Absolutely. Any of this surprising? Not even close, i say to myself.


• I have to go back to the crisis happening in SL. Even if we all assume that Prabhakaran represents everything that is evil, how can we turn a blind eye to the suffering of Tamil civilians? Wouldn't demonizing Prabhakaran and then not capturing him give the Sri Lankan government the much needed reason and excuse to use its military on the Tamils in Northern Srilanka as long as it sees fit, and also to never come to the negotiating table. It is time to force the SL govt and Tamils to the table and not keep this process hostage on a single issue like capture of Prabhakaran.


• Our politicians have provided much needed comical relief with their utter shamelessness. Anyone who remembers Jaya throwing Vaiko in the slammer for over a year under POTA would be laughing out loud at this pic below. I surely did.



• How many think that Indian Real Estate Bubble has burst and reached its bottom? DLF just asked the government to denotify four of the SEZs allotted to it due to a reduction in demand. More on economics later.
  

Thoppukaranam: Your way to becoming smarter!

Don't know if Pillaiyar (Ganpathi for North Indians) cares about your thoppukaranams (sit ups), but at least you might become smart. Check this out.

A Ray of Hope : Elizabeth Warren

Thanks to people like Elizabeth Warren, maybe US will pull through this crisis without transferring every last dollar to the bankers, that is if she is not forced out of her position.

Hotel Lobby Effect!!!

Is it me or is there anyone else who feels like being in a Hotel Lobby when going to one of these many Hindu Temples with Marble interior, you know, with Marble floor, walls etc.,? Even the idols are made out of marble. Whenever i visit these temples, all i get is the feeling of being in an oh-so-run three star hotel lobby.

Partition: A look back at our history

Watch Partition - The Day India Burned in Entertainment  |  View More Free Videos Online at Veoh.com

Must Watch (if you are interested in this economic crisis)

If you still have doubt about the fraud all the banks in wall st committed. Check this out. A MUST watch.

Part 1:


Part 2:


Part 3: