Glocal View

When Michelle talks Climate Change

2011-08-10T01:19:00.001-05:00

Wisconsin

2011-08-09T23:27:00.004-05:00

Whatever the result of the Wisconsin Recall results, i think there is still hope for progressives. I only hope that this is just a beginning of a broader movement that brings the progressive wing of the Democratic party to congress replacing the Blue Dogs, not to mention the ultra crazy, obstructionist wing of the Republican Party.

Lokpal - Observations

2011-08-05T00:51:00.005-05:00

Today the government tabled it's version of the Lokpal bill and Team Anna was burning the same outside. I have only a few observations to make from what i have seen till now.

Team Anna is trying to sell it's version as a solution to everything corrupt under the sun (atleast within India), which is just not going to work. In their zeal to root out corruption they have tried to bring every damn department within the purview of Lokpal. I don't see how they will implement this even they get a chance to pass their version. Also, you just cannot legislate corruption away. It needs to be organic. Instead of the my way or highway approach which has given the Congress Govt to point out Team Anna's intransigence as an excuse to come out with it's own more or less a watered down version of Lokpal, Team Anna must have worked as the watchdog within the joint committee holding the govt to task and coming out with one stronger version of Lokpal.

While Team Anna might have it's heart at the right place, it's method of tantrum throwing and calling into question the integrity of everything that relates to our Polity and constitutional process doesn't go well with people who still have faith within the democratic process. If i should not trust the politicians who are atleast held accountable every 5 years, how am i supposed to trust arbitrarily chosen "Few Good Men" who make up the lokpal. I surely don't (maybe i am too cynical). Let us think about this for a minute. Would anyone have thought the democratic setup we came up with after independence would devolve into such a corrupt system? The idealists and statesmen gave way to corrupt politicians. So, how am i supposed to believe that we need to have an ombudsman who is all powerful and unaccountable and not elected will stick to it's legislated mandate? Maybe in the first 5-10 years. How about after that?

I feel, notwithstanding another fasting threat (on Aug 16), Team Anna has lost a great opportunity to have played a very constructive role in this whole process. The popular anger and support was behind them and they could have kept the Govt's feet to fire. By walking out and coming with their own version and trying to put a deadline by which the Govt must pass their version and threatening with a fast if the govt fails to do so they have painted themselves into a corner.

I also have to say something about the way Team Anna comes off on TV, especially Arvind Kejiriwal and Kiran Bedi. Both of them have their heart in the right place, God bless them, but they come off very off handed in any interview or discussion. When some relevant questions are asked of them they keep changing the goal posts or make simplistic arguments which never answer the asked question. I also hate it when Arvind brings up the movie Gandhi and the scene where Gandhiji burns the passes to their act of burning the Lokpal draft. I am sorry, whatever the drawbacks of our current political system and however corrupt the system is, it is not the same as a subjugating alien power and Team Anna ain't made of Mahatma Gandhis (including highly respected Anna Hazare). I only wish he stops using that as an analogy.

I only hope that they use the immense popular outrage that is behind them in the coming days to good use rather than overreaching and in the end wasting away the whole thing.

Lokpal

2011-07-07T02:27:00.002-05:00

The disgust and anger what everyone of us felt towards our corrupt politicians and bureaucrats manifested itself into unconditional support for Anna Hazare’s fast. The overwhelming support even forced the government into forming a joint committee to draft the Lokpal bill. The story until this point has all the bearings of a triumph for people power. Subsequent events towards drafting the bill has become acrimonious and a lot of noise has been made by both sides. I have been following this closely for obvious reasons.

while I was a staunch supporter of Anna Hazare’s movement early on, the subsequent policy discussions have made me sit up and think. Some of the points that have made me quite nervous are -

1) Should Lokpal be that all powerful body that is not accountable to anyone, of course, except the supreme court, whilst having Judiciary under its radar?

2) How and from where would Lokpal get all its personnel who are far from all the systemic corruption that plagues our country?

a) Are they going to recruit people completely new?

b) Are they going to recruit through the Civil Services and IPS? if so, how is it any different from the current set?

c) Are their payscales going to be high enough that these new recruits wouldn’t be tempted to misuse their new (seemingly) unaccountable power?

d) How would Lokpal ensure that normal government office employees aren’t harassed by Lokpal officers? (I am sure there won’t any sympathizers right now on this count, but what has happened in India is either misuse of power or negligence of duty. We have to make sure that Lokpal isn’t another avenue for the same mistakes)

e) What additional laws/regulations are going to be passed so that the avenues for existing corruption is closed (or atleast reduced)?

3) Must the office of PM be under the Lokpal? Should 7 unelected, arbitrarily selected (remember only the consent of 7 of 11 members are needed) members be capable of filing a case against the PM while he is in office? (Note – I am completely against this for various reasons.)

4) How are the 11 member committee going to be selected? If it is some arbitrary qualification like impeccable public record, what does that mean?

There are many more questions that keep popping in my mind while I wait anxiously trying to get as much info and see how the details are being ironed out. But what I see is not truly encouraging. Anna’s team, while having brought up many good points seem to be hung up on a few points where I think they are being naïve.

And the middle class which watches the english news channels and has a romanticized view of the world (while not taking any responsibility) expects an avatar (read Anna Hazare. it was funny the same crowd fell for someone like Baba Ramdev) to come and save them their own elected overlords. And as always, we want to have it both ways – We want to shout to anyone who would listen how great our democracy is while hating our politics and politicians. We like to badmouth our babus but don’t think how different would a new bureaucracy be with all its new power. We want all the powerful to be accountable and are ready to create an unaccountable coterie to do that.

I am keeping my eyes and ears open to hear all this issues discussed and debated in detail before Lokpal bill is passed. But one thing is for sure. There is no hope for our country until critical thinking is part of our curriculum.

Breathing Life into this blog again

2011-03-11T01:17:00.003-06:00

I am bringing back this blog to life again. I would be posting atleast twice a week going forward in addition to the links that i would share.

As a first step, here is one of my favorite bloggers speaking -

Watch live streaming video from nytimes at livestream.com

Update: I will also be writing on the TN Elections @ Scaling New Heights.

Timmy's in Town

2010-04-06T20:13:00.002-05:00

Wish someone who knew anything about economics and finance interviewed him. Prannoy talks about just fluff and there is nothing of depth. Atleast someone like Swetha Rajpal Kohli would have been better given the guest.

War of Words: Yuan vs USD.

2010-03-15T18:08:00.007-05:00

The financial world in the last three to four weeks has been a roller coaster ride. The PIIGS trouble dominated the news initially which gave way to much of the focus on Greece. It was almost a nail-biting thriller on what the fate of Greece would be. Would it be bailed out by Germany (and hence Eurozone) or would be punished for its profligate ways. For now, it seems Greece has been able to get out of this mess, but not without considerable pain by the way of benefit cuts, wage cuts and rise in taxes. It remains to be seen whether these so called austerity measures would be enough to bring it out of this fiscal debacle. However, late last week and through this weekend, most of the focus has been on China and its currency manipulation.

First up, Obama railed against China's currency manipulation which China immediately rebuffed. From Bloomberg

“I don’t think the renminbi is undervalued,” Wen said yesterday at a press conference in Beijing marking the end of China’s annual parliamentary meetings, using another term for the yuan. “We oppose countries pointing fingers at each other and even forcing a country to appreciate its currency.”

Then NYTIMES had this article on how China is taking advantage of the rules to keep its currency pegged to the dollar, artificially keeping it low. From NYTIMES:

Seeking to maintain its export dominance, China is engaged in a two-pronged effort: fighting protectionism among its trade partners and holding down the value of its currency.
[...]
China buys dollars and other foreign currencies — worth several hundred billion dollars a year — by selling more of its own currency, which then depresses its value. That intervention helped Chinese exports to surge 46 percent in February compared with a year earlier.

Paul Krugman in his column on monday calls the US to start taking action on China on this issue. He also says that China, with its policies is causing the overall global growth rate slowdown by as much as 1.5%. This issue, if it becomes an all out trade war between the US and China, would have huge ramifications across the globe. How would this affect India, Rupee's exchange rate, our industries and hence our economy.

If China starts dumping dollars (i don't think they would do this, since its like taking all your money and dropping them in the river), then USD would immediately start losing it value. This would mean even our foreign exchange reserves would start losing their value. (Remember this is the most unlikely scenario). The moment USD starts losing its value our IT industry starts losing its edge, which means that a lot of outsourced jobs would go back to the US (if these jobs are still needed, since even the US would be hurt in the short term with such devaluation of dollars). The same could be said about the manufacturing industry. When USD is cheap, it becomes cheaper to manufacture in US itself. So, China is extremely unlikely to do this.

China cannot go on doing what it is doing now which is to keep buying USD to keep Yuan from appreciating. Given the recession and the unpopularity of Obama's administration for the way it handled Wall Street bailouts and Healthcare Reform, this issue would be a godsend to them. Pointing a finger at a foreign country for all the troubles at home is the easiest thing for any politician to do to get the population rally behind him. Since China is infact manipulating its currency and hence is partly responsible for job loss in the US, it becomes all the more easier. This would make it easier for the US to impose new tariffs and make imports from China costlier, thereby undermining Chinese edge. Furthermore, it would only aggravate the relationship between the two countries. So, China is unlikely to continue to do what it is doing now.

The most likely thing would be to have a war of words, both Obama and the communists playing to their domestic audience, and then China would let a controlled appreciation of Yuan by a small percentage. The current view is that Yuan is undervalued by around 20%. So, i think China is giving such a belligerent response only as a bargaining tactic. It would let Yuan appreciate by a few Percentage points so as to placate world opinion, whilst keeping its manufacturing advantage to itself.

But it would interesting to see how these two countries play out this issue in the next fews.

We sure are living in interesting times.

Must Read from Econoblogs

2010-03-11T17:58:00.004-06:00

The entire post is a must read.

From - Nakedcapitalism -

The widespread, vocal opposition to the TARP was evidence that a once complacent populace had been roused. Reform, if proposed with energy and confidence, wasn’t a risk; not only was it badly needed, it was just what voters wanted.

But incoming president Obama failed to act. Whether he failed to see the opportunity, didn’t understand it, or was simply not interested is moot. Rather than bring vested banking interests to heel, the Obama administration instead chose to reconstitute, as much as possible, the very same industry whose reckless pursuit of profit had thrown the world economy off the cliff. There would be no Nixon goes to China moment from the architects of the policies that created the crisis, namely Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and Director of the National Economic Council Larry Summers.

Perils of typing your post from iphone

2010-02-23T11:47:00.002-06:00

When i thought i keyed in whitehouse.gov, iphone somehow turned it to whorehouse.gov!

Beware!

Healthcare Reform : Whitehouse version

2010-02-23T09:14:00.005-06:00

Healthcare reform continues to infuriate progressives like me. The white house version released yesterday more than managed to do the same. I am still researching on the details (it's up on whitehouse.gov). Here are three points to take note of -

1) No public option in this version too.
2) The maximum %age of income one can be charged as health insurance premium cannot exceed 9.5% (this was 9.8%) earlier.
3) The penalty for not having insurance has been increased to 2.5% of annual income.

Will post in detail soon.

Mumbai: Who's Hot and Who's Not!

2010-02-05T18:58:00.007-06:00

Who's Hot

Shahrukh Khan
For showing that someone from Bollywood can stick to his guns.

Rahul Gandhi
It may be a political stunt, you might not like Congress, it may be an empty gesture, but you have to appreciate Rahul Gandhi for treating Sena how it should be.

Who's Not

Amitabh Bachchan
Firs Narendra Modi and now praising Tackarey. He may have been the Angry Young Man once upon a time, but he now surely is not.

Udhhav Tackarey
We all know why.

Couldn't be better....

2010-02-03T20:45:00.003-06:00

I don't think anything else would have captured and parodied the pathetic state of tamil in our songs than this one. Can't wait to catch the movie too...

Big Brother - Desi Ishtyle

2010-01-31T21:44:00.002-06:00

From NDTV:

NCTC is a one stop set-up to monitor almost any activity of yours, whether through your passport or to check on immigration details.

Documents that can be sought to seek details:
Passport
Bank accounts
Taxes, PAN card
Ration card
Voter I-card
Airline, Railway travel
Telephone documents

Who will access your details:
New agency to be set up (National Intelligence Grid)
Intelligence Bureau (IB), Research And Analysis Wing (RAW), Central Burau of Investigation (CBI), Defence Research Institute (DRI), National Investigative Agency (NIA), Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Economic Offences Wing (EOW)

Are we marching towards a police state in the name of security?

What struck me most was the matter of fact reporting without any real critique of the proposed system. Of course, there was the perfunctory mention regarding privacy, but nothing more.

Juxtapose this with the reality that is Indian Bureaucracy/Police Service - Corruption, Heavy-handed treatment of people, no real care for Citizen's rights, abuse of power.

It might make sense on paper to have as much data available to the security/investigative forces, given our corrupt and morally bankrupt system, this is a recipe for disaster.

Wattabottles..Just for fun!!

2010-01-30T16:17:00.005-06:00

Economy - Perspectives on US, China and India

2010-01-24T12:45:00.013-06:00

Joseph Stiglitz, one of the economists i try to follow online, has an article - more of an extract from his book Free Fall - in Telegraph. He argues that we need to question the underlying concept of Capitalism as practiced in the west. I for one believe in active regulation of the markets by the government, thereby guaranteeing a level playing fair field for all the stakeholders. Anyone who has followed this crisis and the way the US Govt has gone about bailing out "Too Big to Fail" banks without any new regulations or slap in the wrist of the bankers who were responsible for the whole thing will know that what is practiced in the US is Crony Capitalism. From Telegraph -

Government needs to play a role, and not just in rescuing the economy when markets fail and in regulating markets to prevent the kinds of failures we have just experienced. Economies need a balance between the role of markets and the role of government – with important contributions by non-market and non-governmental institutions. In the last 25 years, America lost that balance, and it pushed its unbalanced perspective on countries around the world.

The current crisis has uncovered fundamental flaws in the capitalist system, or at least the peculiar version of capitalism that emerged in the latter part of the 20th century in the US (sometimes called American-style capitalism). It is not just a matter of flawed individuals or specific mistakes, nor is it a matter of fixing a few minor problems or tweaking a few policies.

It has been hard to see these flaws because we Americans wanted so much to believe in our economic system. "Our team" had done so much better than our arch enemy, the Soviet bloc

While speaking about economy, capitalism and such, it wouldn't make sense to not include China. With its break neck speed of growth, unforeseen levels of foreign exchange reserves and growing political muscle, it most likely is the next superpower. However i don't think they have the softpower or other ideologies that might attract people from every part of the globe towards it. Here is an article from Rediff which purports to show how the world with China as the predominant power would be very different. From Rediff -

Americans and Europeans blithely assume that China will become more like them as its economy develops and its population gets richer. This is a mirage, Jacques says. The Chinese and their government are wedded to a different conception of society and polity: Community-based rather than individualist, state-centric rather than liberal, authoritarian rather than democratic. China has 2,000 years of history as a distinct civilisation from which to draw strength. It will not simply fold under western values and institutions.

A world order centred on China will reflect Chinese values rather than western ones, Jacques argues. Beijing [ Images ] will overshadow New York, the renminbi will replace the dollar, Mandarin will take over from English, and schoolchildren around the world will learn about Zheng He's voyages of discovery along the Eastern coast of Africa rather than about Vasco de Gama or Christopher Columbus.

(If you have read the article above, do you see the inherent contradiction within the article.)

So, in all this talk about Capitalism and big economies, where does our country stand? Are we on the right path or are we just a few decades behind, but on the same path that led to western economies to this mess? We have escaped this crisis without being hurt bad because of the regulations that were put in place. Foreign money was not allowed in to provide for a credit explosion. Though there was a bubble in the real estate field, since most of real estate (not including commercial real estate) were bought by end users themselves, not by speculators like in Dubal, any crash in that market wouldn't be as big as we see in other places. We must note that this was not coincidence but by design. Reserve Bank had proper regulations and controls over our banks. In the coming years, we would see a lot of noise about the need to open up a lot of sectors and regulations, but i hope India too doesn't succumb to the lure of short term gains in place of long term well being.

I hate when guys from the west preach to us about why we should not be mimicking the west, whilst doing nothing in their home turf. Yes, mindless materialism leads to a meaningless life and all that. But this is akin to US citizens lecturing us about resource utilization. We all know what we saw when TATA introduced NANO. We heard endlessly about how India shouldn't learn the bad habits from the west. Yeah, we must all risk our lives with 4 riding a scooter, while monstrosities like Hummers and other SUVs are the norm in the US.

Anyways, for what its worth, from Times of India -

Maybe 50 years ago, the effects of massive consumption were largely ignored. But today, most people acknowledge many planets would be required if everyone picked up American consumer habits.

Even the western toilets have become a status symbol in Indian middle-class homes. Millions of fancy flush toilets are added every year to new trendy restaurants, malls, condominiums and five-star hotels in Indian cities. Instead of adopting unsustainable imports from the West, there are areas wherein India should inspire the latter. With its traditional squatting toilet for instance. Not just because it is cheaper, more hygienic and better adapted to the human anatomy, but mostly, in a context where clean water is increasingly rare and pricy, because it requires much less of it. Countless other sustainable concepts, values and products from India could benefit Westerners. Strong extended family ties, respect for elders, kriya yoga and tongue-scrapers are just a few of them.

Indian needs to avoid repeating the West’s mistakes. Only enlightened citizens can show the way towards a more viable economy by putting pressure on government, stressing India’s success should not be measured by GDP growth rates and spending habits alone. Nor should it aspire to become like the US or China.

What do you think India should do?

Desi Consultancies and the New H1 Regime

2010-01-23T11:01:00.006-06:00

Many have read about the recent USCIS memo on H1B which has abruptly changed the career course of many, what with denial of entry to many who went to India this holiday season and more who are still here. The implications of the memo is far reaching and as such there could be a big change in the way IT consultancies work. Here is the latest from Murthy (read full article here) explaining the finer elements of the memo and the subsequent clarifications from USCIS -

Job Shop Arrangements - Problematic
The most important example for IT consulting situations is the example of third-party placement or "job-shop" arrangements. The USCIS does not consider that there is a valid employer-employee relationship if the petitioner contracts with outside companies to fill their staffing needs. The positions are filled on an as-needed basis, rather than specifically being outlined in a contract between the petitioner and the third party. The beneficiary reports to a manager who is an employee of the third-party company. The beneficiary does not get work assignments from the petitioner; rather, the third-party company issues the assignments. The petitioner does not control the work, and there is no proprietary information regarding the petitioner that is used in the process. The end product is not related to the petitioner's business of IT consulting, and reviews are completed by the end client. The petitioner does not have the right of control and does not exercise control. Accordingly, there is no employer-employee relationship in this example.

Since most of the desi consultants work in a Job-Shop arrangement, and the business models of both the end clients and the desi consultancies revolve around this arrangement, in the short term there could be a lot of problems for people trying to re-enter US or applying for H1, at a minimum until further clarifications come from USCIS. What are the implications, especially for us desis here -
(a) if you are a student, this is probably one of the worst times to graduate. The market is really bad, and IT consultancies might sound like a solution to many. While it was true a few years ago, it is not anymore.

(b) If you are a desi consultant, i think it is atleast time to think about the next steps towards FTE (Full Time Employment). While it is true that in this market one atleast gets a few months buffer while on bench with a consultancy (desi)- if you get laid off while on FTE, it could be really traumatic to get your visa status straightened out in time - if the trend we are seeing is an indication what is to come, its better to jump ship than to be caught off guard. The USCIS has basically said that the H1Bs filed by desi consultancies who do job-shop business are invalid. If USCIS decides to tighten the noose, in one stroke your H1B can be revoked on this basis. Though it is unlikely that they would do this to every consultancy out there, if they start auditing "random" companies, you could be in trouble when you are the least ready.

Since the US just cannot cut the supply of IT professionals to US businesses - it would just choke them in the short term - abruptly, i can of think of the following three scenarios -

(a) The new memo would be more less invalidated with newer clarifications and work arounds. This is a real possibility and consultancies that are run on sound principles - pay check in time, paper work in order - might have an easier time getting back to normal.

(b) A new class of Visa might be created - like L1s or B1s - to fill just these short term projects. I see this as a possibility, albeit a not so good one. But this would only increase the paper work and uncertainty for a lot of working people. So, while it won't be popular, if it comes through desi consultants will have a tough time. I hope this doesn't happen.

(c) Vendor companies and End clients would be forced to hire H1s directly instead of depending on contractors. This would increase their overhead costs - providing benefits and such - and operating costs.

Among these three i see only option (a) coming through since and possibly to a lesser extent option (c).

But all in all, the free ride that desi consultancies had is coming to an end and for good measure. The only sad part is that many hard working desis might get hurt in the process.

Share your thoughts on what else we could expect.

Democrats' Kabuki

2010-01-22T19:09:00.006-06:00

Thank God for the Massachusetts results, the Democrats atleast have to act as if they are serious about financial reform. Having followed the Democrats in the Senate for the last 4 odd years, i can only say that they really are not capable of any fight. The Obama Presidency is probably the climatic manifestation of the pusillanimity of the Democratic party. No wonder with in one year of a historic win, they have managed to lose Ted Kennedy's seat from a state like MA.

Like millions around the world, i too was excited by a democratic presidential victory, not because Obama was becoming a president, but man, what a let down this has been. If i could be so frustrated at the way the bailouts, Healthcare reform and everything in between have been carried out, i can only imagine the frustration among the millions of young people who worked for Obama's campaign.

The next day after MA election result he announces that there is going to be a major change in Bank regulations. If this does not make one cynical, what would. Did he think he was elected to bail out wall street, cut a secret deal with Pharma companies, a complete give away to Health Insurance companies while unemployment hit 10% until before the elections.

As frustrated as i am with the whole thing, i am not surprised that this is happening. He never was experienced enough to handle as important a position as Presidency during normal times, let alone the Great Recession times.

Health Care "Reform"

2009-12-29T20:14:00.003-06:00

Healthcare reform is one topic i keep coming back since this affects everyone of us here personally. Bob Herbert has an excellent piece today in Newyork Times explaining how ridiculous the Senate bill is. From NYTIMES:

The bill that passed the Senate with such fanfare on Christmas Eve would impose a confiscatory 40 percent excise tax on so-called Cadillac health plans, which are popularly viewed as over-the-top plans held only by the very wealthy. In fact, it’s a tax that in a few years will hammer millions of middle-class policyholders, forcing them to scale back their access to medical care.

Which is exactly what the tax is designed to do.

The tax would kick in on plans exceeding $23,000 annually for family coverage and $8,500 for individuals, starting in 2013. In the first year it would affect relatively few people in the middle class. But because of the steadily rising costs of health care in the U.S., more and more plans would reach the taxation threshold each year.
....
If even the plan’s proponents do not expect policyholders to pay the tax, how will it raise $150 billion in a decade? Great question.

We all remember learning in school about the suspension of disbelief. This part of the Senate’s health benefits taxation scheme requires a monumental suspension of disbelief. According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, less than 18 percent of the revenue will come from the tax itself. The rest of the $150 billion, more than 82 percent of it, will come from the income taxes paid by workers who have been given pay raises by employers who will have voluntarily handed over the money they saved by offering their employees less valuable health insurance plans.

Can you believe it?
...

From my perspective one should read the whole post to digest the scale and level of dishonesty at work with this legislation.

Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has a list of ten reasons with background information for each reason. It is a must read. From NC :

1. Forces you to pay up to 8% of your income to private insurance corporations — whether you want to or not.

2. If you refuse to buy the insurance, you’ll have to pay penalties of up to 2% of your annual income to the IRS.

3. Many will be forced to buy poor-quality insurance they can’t afford to use, with $11,900 in annual out-of-pocket expenses over and above their annual premiums.

4. Massive restriction on a woman’s right to choose, designed to trigger a challenge to Roe v. Wade in the Supreme Court.

5. Paid for by taxes on the middle class insurance plan you have right now through your employer, causing them to cut back benefits and increase co-pays
...

How all this is going to play out with desi consultancies that provide some form of health insurance to its employees or desi consultants who buy their own individual plan. As Herbert says, most desis, not just consultants, would end up getting some plan with reduced benefits and end up paying 40% tax on the same :-).

Interesting days ahead. Keep your eyes open.

P Chidambaram taking questions

2009-11-28T15:10:00.000-06:00

BCCI and Indian Cricket - What Story Comes to Mind?

2009-11-23T17:22:00.005-06:00

From Times of India:

NEW DELHI: It may seem hard to believe, but it's true. There are no takers for the Indian cricket team's Jersey Logo.

In a huge setback for the richest cricket board in the world (BCCI) - which had floated the tenders for the logo on November 2 - the last date of submission (November 24) has arrived, with not a single bid being tendered.
...
This sudden apathy of India Inc could be due to lack of interest in the overexposed game and also because of the high base price being demanded per match.

BCCI is seeking Rs 3 crore for each Test, ODI and T20 match. From 170 international matches India are expected to play in the coming four years, BCCI was hoping to raise at least Rs 510 crore from the deal. Of course, the bid amount would have been much higher.

hmm....what story comes to mind reading this??????

India 2020 - Montek Singh Ahluwalia at MIT

2009-11-21T16:16:00.002-06:00

For people interested in such stuff.

Yet Another Sachin Video

2009-11-20T19:14:00.000-06:00

On the Language Debate

2009-11-16T02:03:00.005-06:00

With linguistic identity dominating the news for the last week or so, thanks to the MNS "goondas" in Maharastra Assembly, old and dead ideas are getting renewed attention. One of them is that we need to have an Indian language as a link language. Since Hindi has been recognized as one of the two official languages (along with English) of the Govt of India and some 40% of India speaks it, we should all learn Hindi (Please note, Hindi is not the only National Language of India. Strictly speaking there is no National Language of India). This rehashed idea of the 60s will only give regional politicians more ammunition to agitate and gain political mileage. I am not saying they would be entirely wrong. I for one don't want anyone forcing me to learn any language, including my own mother tongue. It should be my choice.

Most of the online forums and even discussions amongst my friends elicits oft repeated line of how we are all Indians first, Tamils or Marathis or Kannadigas next. Though i appreciate the sentiment, i find the logic to be very short-sighted. I think when we talk about Unity in Diversity, it means you are Indian when you are Tamil or Marathi or Kannadiga. So, I find the logic that one should lose or atleast put ones identity behind to be Indian to be self-defeating. I think that does grave injustice to a unique kaleidoscope of a country like ours. When i say i am a Madrasi, it means i am Indian. That is how i see it and i feel that captures the beauty that is India. Instead if we keep falling back on the idea that we should have one national language (people oft quote china or other european countries, which is not exactly true since Mandarin is not the only language spoken in China and majority of Europeans are multi-lingual), we are only trying to kill that unique thing about India (where i can visit 10 different places within it and still experience 10 different cultures, languages, food etc.,) which other countries can only dream of.

Indians being Indians, we tend to mimic others rather than appreciate our own strengths. However, i am hopeful we would find our foothold with our growing economic strength and self-belief. Until then, we should crush people playing identity politics and not our identities.

Water - The Elixir of Life

2009-11-09T17:40:00.002-06:00

Daily Dose of Tragedy

2009-10-21T00:45:00.008-05:00

The water tragedy in Thekkady, kerala.

The fire cracker tragedy in TN on the eve of Deepavali.

And today, two trains collide near Mathura.

Do we Indians have to die daily from all sorts of avoidable accidents and for frivolous reasons? Each one of the above were perfectly avoidable and you wouldn't expect such tragedies out from any of the first-world countries.

It stuck me odd because when I (and my roomie) saw the news, both of us didn't even feel pity, rage, sympathy or any other normal human emotion at such level of ineptitude. We just took in the news as if it was as some level expected.

Whilst we desis don't want our country to be clubbed in the so called third-world countries, in reality we would probably be one of the last countries to move of out this club given the huge population that has to be lifted out poverty, a bureaucracy thriving in its ineptitude and corruption and a populace resigned to "Chaltha Hai" attitude. Add to this our frivolous media. (Talking about media, this is probably one of the best takes on one of our fabled news channels - NDTV On Jack and Jill)

Makes me wonder if the little bit of humanity that might have been somewhere within us is dying within just from watching the news each day.

Is Jairam Ramesh a Sell Out or a Wuss?

2009-10-18T15:56:00.002-05:00

If India is indeed planning to make a radical shift in its Climate Change policy negotiations as reported in Times of India, it calls for some serious debate. Jairam Ramesh in a confidential (not anymore) letter to the Prime Minister has called for a changing our long standing policy positions and has basically asked for accepting every demand the US has made of India (and indeed China) without any commitment from the developed countries on financial help or technology transfer to developing and under-developed countries.

There are multiple reasons why the new policy and the reasons put forth for it leave a bad taste in the mouth. Before going in, let us see what is being proposed.

From Times of India:

Environment minister Jairam Ramesh, in a confidential letter to the PM, has suggested that India junk the Kyoto Protocol, delink itself from G77 -- the 131-member bloc of developing nations -- and take on greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments under a new deal without any counter guarantee of finances and technology.
...
The minister has justified the proposed shift of gears by repeating his argument that India need not be seen as a deal-breaker and should try to curb emissions in its own interest. He has also pointed to the advantages -- a permanent seat on the Security Council, for instance -- that it can hope to reap with a changed stance.
...
n his letter, Ramesh emphasizes his concern about India being seen as a bugbear for the developed countries in the climate negotiations. "India must listen more and speak less in negotiations" as its stance is "disfavoured by the developed countries, small island states and vulnerable countries. It takes away from India's aspirations for permanent membership of the Security Council."
...
ow Ramesh has said India should "not stick with G77 but be embedded in G20. We should be pragmatic and constructive, not argumentative and polemical." Interestingly, India had recently fought off immense pressure at the G20 talks to dilute its stand and give up its rights to financial compensation.
...
India, at present emits only 1.2 tonnes per capita of greenhouse gas emissions, as compared to 20 tonnes by the US. Acquiescence in any regime that does not differentiate between the super polluters like the US, on the one hand, and varying levels of developing countries on the other, would, lock the country into an arrangement where its growth options would be restricted.
...
In a note circulated within the government and to select Members of Parliament, it had said that mitigation action (as the Australia Proposal suggests) would lead to rise in the price of power and a drop in the production, impact the expansion of railways and adversely hit the prices of fertilizers in years to come. It would increase the cost of all goods, especially food items; the government assessed that it would increase unemployment especially in the rural agricultural sector. It had also warned that even if the country were to undertake such actions, it would have no impact on the costs of climate change adaptation that India would have to bear.

Now, is it me or is Jairam Ramesh's position looks like an absolute capitulation in the face of pressure from developed countries. After reading the entire article, which i suggest everyone to do, i couldn't find a single point that would seems to take India's self-interest in consideration.

* Is this going to help us grow faster? - NO
* Is this going to help us leap frog into newer technology, thus cutting down on emissions? - NO. The developed countries don't want to transfer technology to developing countries.
* Is this going to help the most vulnerable in our society or elsewhere across the third world? - NO. Infact, given the new tariffs and emission control regime, without financial assistance or technology transfer, is going to make life difficult for this group.

So, what are the reasons our Minister with all his wisdom propose we give into all these demands?

1) India is seen as obstructionist by the developed world.

Excuse me Minister, but who are you kidding. Didn't US refuse to sign Kyoto though it was the most polluting and the most technologically advanced country comparing itself to India and China. However sloppy the logic there was, one can see how well US fights to protect its self-interest. Maybe our minister should learn something from the developed countries that he so desperately wants to impress.

2) India might get a place in the Securiy Council.

This must be the joke of this year. First up, there is no way China or Pakistan or any number of other countries including Germany, Japan and Brazil for one reason or the other is going to let that happen anytime soon. Even if it is going to get a permanent slot in the Security council, it is going to be without a veto. Let us not kid ourselves. US is not going to let one more country to get a veto. So, instead of day dreaming of someday sitting in a table in an institution, which with each passing day is losing its relevance, let us focus on the issue at hand here and now. India's self-interest is paramount in our negotiations, not some decorative title that is bestowed. I don't know when we Indians stop running behind stupid titles that has some imagined prestige but chase real power, something the Chinese seem to be pretty adept in.

3) India should dissociate itself from G-77 and be part of G-20.

There is a very apt tamil saying which goes like this = "Arasana Nambhi Purushana vitta kathai". Roughly translated it means you give up your own kin trusting a stranger. Another dumb idea and reason from our minister. It is not like Climate Change is the only issue where India needs other nation's support. We have the CTBT, NPT, WTO talks where we don't want to be pushed to a corner. Moving to G20 line of reasoning atleast makes sense if we are going to gain something out of it. Instead, we want to ditch our friends for some pat in the back from the developed countries which won't think twice before ditching us in any forum.

It is times like these that we want a party at the centre that tempers and keeps the over-zealous ministers in check. Something the Left played for sometime. I hope the article in TOI elicits more debate and we follow policies that is in our self-interest than about some prestigious title.

As for Jairam Ramesh, is he a sellout or is he a wuss?

A Good News From India on Deepavali!

2009-10-17T21:22:00.000-05:00

Wish everyone a Happy Deepavali!

India: Untold Tragedy of Middle Class

2009-10-07T00:22:00.005-05:00

Is this the price we pay for rapidly westernizing without the support structures available in the west?

From Times Of India:

NEW DELHI: Last week Arvind Pathak and wife Mamta decided death was the only solution to their growing financial difficulties. The 38-year-old

MBA poisoned his 11-year-old daughter, then his wife. He consumed the poison himself and raced out of his house, screaming about what they had just done. Pathak is the latest in a growing list of couples who conclude that life can never solve their myriad problems.
....
Not knowing who to turn to got to the Thevers in Mumbai. Babu Thever, a 37-year-old Tamil film distributor, killed his children and wife along with himself in August last year. Thever suffered from an incurable disease. The deaths shocked relatives and friends who never thought Thever had been stressed.

Lord Mahatma Gandhi Says TN

2009-10-04T11:24:00.001-05:00

...A R Rahman's Bandwagon Continues!!

2009-10-02T16:22:00.002-05:00

When Barbarians Practice Religion

2009-09-30T14:09:00.001-05:00

Indian Nuclear Saga

2009-09-26T16:53:00.003-05:00

A couple of pieces from Outlookindia which i think illustrates the debate better.

Interview with Dr.Santhanam

He was head of the DRDO. He is a missile man, he’s not familiar with nuclear issues. You must have seen the statement of Dr H.N. Sethna. I think Dr Kalam was put up to give a statement and Dr Sethna from Bombay gave such a whack after which Dr Kalam does not know where to hide his face.

An Article about NSA's claims. From OutlookIndia:

Thus, the AEC—as it is constituted today—does not have a member with the experience or expertise to pronounce on the erroneous calculations made by Kakodkar on the yield from Pokhran-II. This is why I say Narayanan is misleading the nation when he said that a peer group in the AEC confirmed the success of Pokhran-II and there’s nothing else the government can do. Whether further nuclear tests are needed or not, the DAE, AEC and BARC definitely need to be reoriented in the national interest.

It is worthwhile to read both of them fully.

India's Perfect Nuclear Storm

2009-09-25T13:32:00.011-05:00

The unfolding Nuclear Saga in India is much lamentable, if not for the shocking revelations, atleast for severely damaging the credibility of the few institutions left with any credibility in our country. However, it is much more important at this point that all the revelations made by Dr.Santhanam be properly and honestly addressed. Per Dr.Santhanam we need atleast two more tests before we can claim to have mastered the Hydrogen bomb technology.

From DNA India

At least two more trial tests are required for India to perfect the thermonuclear, or hydrogen, bomb, says retired scientist K Santhanam. The scientist created a furore last month by claiming that the H-bomb test conducted in 1998 was a dud.

Santhanam believes that there is still time to do so before the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is ratified by the US and China. "I have recommended the crossing of the rubicon," Santhanam told reporters during an interaction with reporters organised by the Indian Women's Press Corps (IWPC) in the capital.

Some raise questions about Dr.Santhanam's claims and his motives, including why he waited for 11 years before coming out. Though there is some legitimacy in questioning about the delay before he came public, i think no one can rubbish his claims since he has the expertise and the insider information. The way govt (NSA) has quickly come out to deny any such gaps in our deterrence is sad. Denial has never solved any problem. When much respected personalities like Anil Kakodkar, Abdul Kalam (i know he does not have the technical expertise) are in one camp while Dr.Santhanam and Dr.P.K.Iyengar in another, it only exacerbates the public's anxieties.

Anil Kakodkar (from TOI)

"We have enough data. We have comprehensive simulation capability and therefore there is no need for any more tests," Kakodkar said days after K Santhanam ignited a controversy that Pokhran-II was a fizzle and did not give the desired yield.

"We used the data of Beneberry nuclear tests of US of December 18,1970 to validate our 3-D simulation for earth motion and displacement and this validated tool was used for bench marking," Kakodkar said.

P.K.Iyengar (from TOI)

There is a "strong reason to believe that the thermonuclear device had not fully burnt and, therefore, further testing was called for," Iyengar, a former Atomic Energy Commission Chairman, said in a statement yesterday.
...
He said, "If he (Santhanam) says that the yield was much lower than projected, that there was virtually no crater formed, and that these reservations were formally presented by DRDO in 1998 itself, then there is considerable justification for reasonable doubt regarding the credibility of the thermonuclear test and, therefore, of our nuclear deterrent."

These are people who are held at high esteem and considered beyond reproach. In my opinion, Dr. Santhanam is doing a great service to our nation by highlighting the inadequacies in our nuclear deterrent even if its 11 years late. This is significant now due to the US's renewed interest on NPT and CTBT.

Obama's call the other day in the UN for all the nations to join and ratify NPT met with unanimous support. This also calls for signing and ratifying CTBT. With the nuclear treaty between India and the US hinging on India not testing, among other things, we are bound to get a lot of heat from the US and other Western Nations before the NPT summit next year. Though India has reiterated its official position of not joining these treaties, how much longer would we be holding out is to be seen. (Note:- The call is for India to join NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state).

From Indian Express:

Ahead of next year’s review conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), US President Barack Obama on Thursday successfully piloted a resolution in the UN Security Council, calling upon all countries outside the treaty, like India, to join as ‘non-nuclear weapons states’.

The resolution, adopted unanimously at a rare summit meeting of the Security Council, evoked a sharp reaction from New Delhi, which, in a strongly-worded letter to the president of Security Council, said India would not comply with non-proliferation obligations to which it has not provided its sovereign consent. Additionally, it noted that India was a nuclear weapon state and that there was no question of it joining the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state.

“India cannot accept externally prescribed norms prescribed norms or standards on matters within the jurisdiction of its Parliament or which are not consistent with India’s constitutional provisions and procedures, or are contrary to India’s national interests or infringe on its sovereignty,” said the letter from Hardeep Singh Puri, India’s permanent representative at the UN.

Added to this already high pressure situation for our policy makers is the new revelation that Iran has a secret Uranium enrichment facility. This would only make the NPT hawks within US State department and Foreign Affair ministries across Europe go into a tizzy and want everyone to join NPT and CTBT asap. This would only give them more momentum in arm-twisting India.

From BBC

Iran's decision to build a secret facility represented a "direct challenge to the basic compact" of the global non-proliferation regime, US President Barack Obama said, making a statement in Pittsburgh, where he is hosting a G20 summit.

Despite Iran's assertions that the facility was for peaceful purposes, the new plant was "not consistent" with that goal, the US president said.

This is an emerging story, there will more that will be coming out in the next few days and it doesn't look like what will would help India's stand. It is for this reason India should quickly do a quick review, conduct a few more tests if need be, and sign the treaties as a FULL NUCLEAR WEAPON STATE. It won't be easy for the next couple of years for India on this front, and S.M.Krishna and Shashi Tharoor have their job cut out for them. One can only hope they are good enough to handle the upcoming Perfect Storm.

The Great Indian Myth

2009-09-25T11:58:00.003-05:00

For people who are interested in ancient Indian History and have been digging around in the internet this might not come as a surprise. There has been a lot debate between Aryan Invasion Theory (AIT), Aryan Migration theory (AMT) etc., This report from Times of India which says the basic Aryan-Dravidian Separation is a myth is pretty interesting, in that it not only dumps one of the most controversial theories - primarily AIT, which the British used to legitimize their colonization of India. Also, it would be interesting to see what this does to the prevailing theory which attributes everything from vedas to the invading Aryans and that the Dravidians who were in the NW part of India were pushed down to South India. What would this do to the Dravidian politics as practiced by DMK, ADMK, MDMK and so on in Tamil Nadu? Perhaps nothing, but still i will keep an eye.

From TOI:

The great Indian divide along north-south lines now stands blurred. A pathbreaking study by Harvard and indigenous researchers on ancestral Indian populations says there is a genetic relationship between all Indians and more importantly, the hitherto believed ``fact'' that Aryans and Dravidians signify the ancestry of north and south Indians might after all, be a myth.

``This paper rewrites history... there is no north-south divide,'' Lalji Singh, former director of the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB) and a co-author of the study, said at a press conference here on Thursday.

India - China Border Issue

2009-09-21T16:10:00.002-05:00

Mr.Obama says, " Yes You Can" to Financial Industry

2009-09-21T14:31:00.004-05:00

Paul Krugman has already panned Obama for such a ridiculous statement. From Krugman's column in NYTIMES:

I was startled last week when Mr. Obama, in an interview with Bloomberg News, questioned the case for limiting financial-sector pay: “Why is it,” he asked, “that we’re going to cap executive compensation for Wall Street bankers but not Silicon Valley entrepreneurs or N.F.L. football players?”

Mr.Obama, for the sake of America, i hope you are smarter than this. The more cynical side of me says you are and are either bought by the Financial Industry or as Krugman suggests in his column, you are not up for any kinda fight. I just don't know which among these three choices can be given a good spin.

Its Bombing everywhere...

2009-09-17T19:39:00.008-05:00

I don't know how many of you have read Shock Doctrine, but for those of you who has read it know how exactly how IMF, World Bank and other institutions are used by developed countries to gain access to markets within developing and under-developed countries in the guise of development loans. The loans come with severe conditions that the countries cannot meet and that leads to further requests for loan waivers or loan modification which come with even more conditions.

In any case, this piece raises a lot of valid questions. We all know India survived this economic crisis and came out a lot better than most countries and it was due to some sound regulations imposed by The Reserve Bank. Now, we might be seeing the liberalization lobby making a back door entry. From The Hindu

Central bank oversight has ensured that the Indian banking sector is in good shape. But in a strange policy twist, the government has approached the World Bank for a loan to recapitalise the nationalised banks that may well come with conditionalities for extensive financial deregulation.

A much more important piece from The Hindu again is a piece by Dr.Santhanam. It is too important for me to excerpt it here. Please read the full piece here.

Vani - I

2009-09-14T16:14:00.009-05:00

(My attempt at fiction)

Vani closed her eyes trying to sleep. She has been tossing and turning for the last hour or so. She could intermittently hear the men outside at a distance in the hall laughing. She couldn't hear exactly what they were talking, but she knew they were playing cards. Otherwise, she could only hear the ticking of the wall clock. She was not alone in the room. Latha Athai was there sleeping next to her. Athai, who has been a support to her, was too tired to allay her fears on the night before perhaps the most important day of her life.

By now, Vani was used to the darkness of the room. There was a beam of light that entered the otherwise sealed room through a crack in the window. Next to Vani's cot, near the dressing table were all the paraphernalia needed for the next morning. The Jewels, though carefully placed in the jewel box, was not concealed from prying eyes that might enter the room. Vani gazed at the red jewel box.

It was a rainy Deepavali that year. Vani who was 12 years old had woke up with her sisters by 4 am, getting ready for the oil bath. Appa had returned last night from Madras with new clothes, pattasu and some sweets. Amma for her part had made murukku. Appa, though a farmer with meagre income, had always tried his best to keep his daughters happy. The relationship between amma and appa weren't so smooth, but Vani never thought much about it. To her, Athai Latha's house is a safe haven when things weren't normal. Athai for her part, embraced the sisters as her own and treated them like her kids. Vani never understood the subtle differences and motivations for how people reacted to each other. All she knew was that Appa was closer to her, for some reason, than her sisters and that anytime she feels bad, she can run to Athai. Early that morning, after the perfunctory pooja after bath, Vani was all gleaming in her
new dress. She was ready to run to athai and show her new dress. Just then appa called her in. He opened a small red box and took two small ear rings in what looked like Gold. Amma took the ear rings, placed on the pedestal with pictures of Gods from the Hindu pantheon. Vani was checking out herself in the mirror with her ear-rings. She could hear her mother in the Kitchen telling her to ,"be careful, this is for your marriage, if you lose it, you will be the one without it."

Just then, the noise from the Hall became a little louder to draw her attention away from the Jewel box. Next to it lay the Kanchipuram pattu sari. It was violet in color with designs of peacock. Vani has always wanted a Pattu pudavai for herself. Even during her sister's marriage, appa couldn't manage a new one for the sisters. She had to do with one of her mother's sari. In all the other marriages she had to attend, she was never allowed to wear any of her mother's five saris. Though she was in her teens, she had to do see her athais, periyammas and cousins from Madras flaunting their wealth with their silk saris and Jewelry. she always wanted a sari of her own so that she can wear it to all these weddings.

Latha Athai had by this time started to snore. Athai had come from Madras 10 days earlier for the wedding to assist in the preparations. She had problems with her knee, but that did not stop her to do any less for the marriage. Madras Athai was sleeping next her. Between these two, Vani saw shades of her mother. Latha athai in her unquestioning love for her, always being there for her. Yet, she could at times be harsh when Vani didn't exactly follow her instructions or wanted to have a lazy day. Vani's mother too was a workholic and expected the same of her daughters, even in their pre-teen days. Madras athai was the other side, she was a small women in size, like her mother, but she always gave the freedom to have her own space. Madras Athai, in ways complemented Latha athai.

The louder ding dong from the clock marked the passing of yet another hour. It must be 12 AM now, only 5 hours before the muhurtam. Vani wanted to go to sleep, but the more she thought about sleep, the more awake she seemed to feel. Even the men outside seemed to have packed up and slept. The thought of the men playing outside led her to think of the man sleeping in the other room. She wondered whether he too would be having trouble sleeping and what is going on in his mind.

Rajkumar was sitting on the folding chair sipping coffee, a little shy, a little scared Vani thought, because of her Grandfather. Her Grandfather could be an intimidating man, especially for unsuspecting young men, who expect a jocular old guy for a thatha. Thatha always had a temper, and never easily opened up to new people. This included the fiance of his grand-daughter. Luckily for Vani, her village had long ago moved beyond coffee giving routine of the yesteryears. She was also part the group sitting outside when Rajkumar had come to see her for the first time. She didn't feel out of place since all she could see was her relatives and neighbors. Maybe her confidence at that gathering was even more off-putting for Raj. She could surely see him fidgeting and looking for ways to be let out.

Raj turned out to be a sweet guy in the days she spoke with him since the Nitchayadartham. She didn't like his smoking habit, but she figured she can change him. He called her daily on athai's cell phone and she could speak with him for a few minutes in private. He has still not been able to break ice with Thatha. On the two occasions that he found a reason to come home to visit her, one for her birthday and one when he called on visit athai, thatha stared at him throughout his stay. He later told her that he felt like thatha might any time pounce on him and bite his head off. Vani couldn't stop laughing. This is what she liked about Raj, his charm that doesn't overwhelm, but which makes her comfortable. He made her forget her situation, made her feel special for those two minutes that she got to speak with him on the phone.

Yet, as the clock ticked, she couldn't get past this inexplicable fear that started to only grow. She had grown comfortable with Raj, she couldn't say whether she was falling in love but she has started to trust him, was not enough to let her go to sleep. She needed someone to confide her fears, to get a reassuring word. She wanted to sleep for a few hours. She didn't want to wake her athai up. She knew how hard she had worked to get this wedding going. She appreciated it with all her heart. She wanted someone to understand what she was going through and to check on her at this hour. Vani, for the first time since the wedding talk began, missed her mother. More than her mother, she missed her father's reassuring presence.

to be continued...

Naresh Goyal's Verbal Diarrhea

2009-09-09T22:02:00.004-05:00

So, if you don't agree with your boss all the time and follow his diktats, apparently per Naresh Goyal, you are a terrorist too. You are no different from the those who kill, maim and dismember innocent people for some twisted ideology. You are the same as those who tortured and killed people in Mumbai in 26/11, those who attacked our parliament, those who set bombs in Mumbai trains, in Varanasi, in Assam, in Bangalore and so on.

For a country that has to deal with terrorism on a daily basis, knowing full well the tragedy and violence it represents, I expect we Indians to be mindful when labeling someone a terrorist. Much like calling anyone Nazi for any reason trivializes the pain Jews had to go through in Germany, calling anyone who doesn't agree with you a terrorist trivializes the real victims of terror in our country. And here we have a guy, however legitimate his claims in this whole issue might be, calling employees who don't agree to some corporate policy as terrorist is just mindless. I hope he soon recovers from this verbal diarrhea and starts speaking with his mouth than through his ass.

From TOI:

Jet chairman Naresh Goyal was blunt: "They are behaving like terrorists. They cannot hold the country, passengers, the airline hostage."

NO FIRST USE

2009-09-05T23:55:00.003-05:00

Are we seeing a great tectonic shift in the security scenario right in front of our eyes here. I know the whole nuclear debate right now is pretty complex and the Pakistani angle only adds to the complexity and urgency. Throw in the revival of CTBT and we have a perfect storm building up for India within the next year.

From TOI:

Army chief Gen Deepak Kapoor may have opened a fresh discussion on India's nuclear posture and preparedness with his recent remarks
that if reports of Pakistan's expanded arsenal are correct, then New Delhi may well have to reconsider its strategic stance.
....
Kapoor's implied suggestion that India could have to revisit its no-first use policy in case the strength of Pakistan’s nuclear was close to what had been claimed, will challenge a long held position. The need to think afresh is also linked to Pakistan deliberately blurring its red lines to maintain a nebulous doctrine.

More thoughts on the nuclear issue coming soon...

There are still a few model students

2009-09-05T12:02:00.001-05:00

Does our non-chalant attitude help?

2009-09-04T13:07:00.002-05:00

Being somewhat of a news buff myself, i have tried to have conversations with few of my friends about the current policy debates that is doing the rounds in the US about healthcare. Much to my chagrin, barring a very few, most were not even interested in knowing what is being debated, and why this is one of the most important issues in any society. What surprises me the most is that these are the same people who have already applied for their Green Cards and plan on settling down in the US.

Given the high cost of healthcare, and tales of how it could financially ruin a family in case of a medical calamity, I supposed that these new settlers in America would take a particular interest in the debate. After all, if there is a good public option, then i don't think people would be so reliant on employer based health insurance. So, why are we desis, who want to settle down here and just beginning to make financial headway being so indifferent to policy debates such as these? Why aren't we looking 10 years down the line and see that there might come a time when the healthcare policy of this country would impact each of us in a big way at some point.

There are two different responses which i typically get. 1) I will go to India to get my treatment in case something is major (which is a foolhardy approach. Emergencies don't give you advance notice). 2) I am not even a citizen here (which does not make sense either. most of these people are going to settle down here, and citizenship would be a step that would come down the road). All the responses i usually get reflect our attitude toward public policy and responsibility - one of escapism and excuses.

Is this is a cultural - the typical desi non-chalance towards anything that is not personal - thing?

Why are we again digging our own financial graves by being apathetic towards such issues?

Isn't it time we left our cultural baggage at the door, and atleast look at issues that has grave implications to our own future?

Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus....

2009-09-02T15:38:00.002-05:00

If you ever doubted this assertion, here is a proof :P,

From TimesofIndia

Japan's next prime minister might be nicknamed "the alien", but it's his wife who claims to have had a close encounter with another world.

"While my body was asleep, I think my soul rode on a triangular-shaped UFO and went to Venus," Miyuki Hatoyama, the wife of premier-in-waiting Yukio Hatoyama, wrote in a book published last year

Media Hype Desi Style

2009-09-02T11:50:00.005-05:00

(from Times of India)

Hmm..i don't see any connection between the score and headline, nor is it highly unexpected or is a huge upset.

India: A Day of Yea and Nay

2009-08-26T15:32:00.003-05:00

I was pleasantly surprised to see that public opinion still matters in our Country. Though this is a good news, the caveat that the judges cannot be questioned about their assets is still a 'holier-than-thou' attitude they so easily thrust upon us. Ironically, the overseers of our laws still seem to think they are beyond it.

From TimesofIndia

Bowing to intense public pressure as well as revolt in the ranks, Supreme Court judges on Wednesday finally agreed to disclose their assets and liabilities and post the details on the official website of the apex court.

However, the landmark decision has a caveat attached to it: the judges would not entertain any query relating to their assets and liabilities and how their wealth grew or decreased.

The decision to make a public disclosure of their assets and liabilities as well as those of their spouses and dependents was taken by Chief Justice of India K G Balakrishnan and the judges at a full court meeting, marking a major climbdown on the part of higher judiciary.

I had earlier in march touched upon the same issue here.

POKHRAN II: Thermo Nuclear Whimper

Now we get to hear, what we had feared but convinced ourselves all along that it can't be true. The thermonuclear test apparently wasn't as big a success as we were led to believe, albeit with loud protestations by western media. At this point, despite the exaggerated claims, we would be more at a loss if we are to sign CTBT, thus robbing us of any opportunity to master this technology. We should never be at the mercy of Powers, be it US or China at any point due to a lack of credible deterrance.

Again from TimesofIndia

The yield of the thermonuclear
explosions was actually much below expectations and the tests were perhaps more a fizzle rather than a big bang.
The controversy over the yield of the tests, previously questioned by foreign agencies, has been given a fresh lease of life with K Santhanam, senior scientist and DRDO representative at Pokhran II, admitting for the first time that the only thermonuclear device tested was a "fizzle". In nuclear parlance, a test is described as a fizzle when it fails to meet the desired yield.

The Sound of Paradise

2009-08-22T00:54:00.001-05:00

Jaswant Episode: BJP Dying from within

2009-08-21T00:28:00.004-05:00

BJP didn't take any action on Varun Gandhi for his hate speech, however it expels a senior experienced and knowledgeable leader like Jaswant Singh for writing a book. Goes to show what is wrong with the party. Reports indicate that it was Narendra Modi who pushed hard for Jaswant's removal and he also banned the book in Gujarat. Notwithstanding his success in Gujarat, if BJP is to have any future as a Pan-Indian party that befits a modern, secular and growing democracy, it has to drop the hardliners like Modi out from decision making roles.

Either that, or if India is foolish enough to fall for the quasi-theocratic thuggery that the likes of Narendra Modi practice in the name of Hindu Culture or what not, it will become yet another Asian Nation that couldn't keep its religion and state separate, deserving the consequent fate that befalls every other theocratic state.

Looking Inward

2009-08-16T01:01:00.002-05:00

Musings on Aug 15th

2009-08-14T15:31:00.008-05:00

As a country how far have we come since 1947? Have we achieved as a nation what we could have? From my perspective we surely are not a failure, atleast not yet, but that isn't a reason to not see the silver lining too. Despite our little to nothing progress on the alleviation of poverty, social mobility and illiteracy, there are a few things to cheer about in India (no, i am not going to carp about our "democratic credentials"). For all the faults within our system, we have produced a decent Industrial base, scientific community, self-reliant in food (achieved with the first green revolution). We also had a decent land re-distribution reform done early after Independence and thanks to it, the feudal zamindari system was broken down. But whether all these are enough is still to be seen. If the recent Moaist attacks are any indication there is a lot of work to be done to reduce the inequality that persists. So, on this day, what are the challenges and opportunities that we Indians are faced with?

Let me start with the challenges.

Water Resource

This is probably the biggest problem that India would face in next 10 to 15 years. This problem is exacerbated by an exploding population, rapid industrialization, rapid groundwater depletion and changing weather patterns. If the current trends continue and due to global warming, the Himalayan Glaciers disappear making Ganges and other perennial rivers seasonal, it could have devastating results for our country's food security and survival of huge sections of our people.

Unemployment and Dissatisfied Youth

India has the youngest population of any country at this time. There would be a huge bump, in an already hugely competitive job market, in the number of people entering the job market. A significant portion of this population would be illiterate or with bare minimum education. Keeping this section employed, providing them with access to education (and retraining) is going to be huge challenge. This is going to be the biggest issue that would determine the political stability and internal peace (including law and order situation) over the next decade and beyond. The Moaists and Naxalite problem that is spreading over large swathes of our country will only get worse if we don't find a solution to keep our youth employed and the inequality in our society is worked on.

Pandemics

Swineflu, currently scaring most of our cities just shows how vulnerable we are to such outbreaks. Given our population density, poor sanitation, dependence on public transportation, such outbreaks are going to be ever more difficult to control. Added to this, a majority of our kids are malnourished would only make them that much more vulnerable.

Opportunities

Most of the risks listed above are not unique to India. Most developing and under-developed countries have the very same problems. Any solution (technological or otherwise) is going to be a huge revenue and job generator for us.

Resource Management

Water, Food, Minerals, forest cover, wildlife, fisheries - all of these resources would become evermore precious in the days to come. We should be developing newer technologies that are cheap enough for developing and poor countries.

Bio-tech and Micro-biology

We should be pioneering in the development of new technologies in food production, storage and distribution. Though we are pretty big in the generic drug market, India should be working on becoming the hub for coming up with and producing drugs for diseases that afflict poor, tropical countries.

Engineering

Don't be afraid, I am not talking about IT. If Tato Nano and Simputer (though commercially not successful) are examples, we know that we are good at engineering and in coming up with solutions that are specific to our needs. We should use our immense industrial base with our engineering talent to come up with designs and processes that help our lot, instead of just waiting for the west to come up with newer designs that we simply absorb.

Wish everyone a very happy Independence Day!!!!

State of Nation Shame

2009-08-03T01:37:00.003-05:00

I have nothing more to add.

From TimesofIndia:

More than 60 years after Independence, untouchability is alive and thriving in India’s hinterlands. Pockets of social change have been but mere drops in an ocean of casteism and prejudice.
...
Dalits are still segregated with little access to temples, water sources and upper caste areas. And ironically, even in Radhanagar in Hooghly district, the birthplace of social reformer Raja Ram Mohan Roy, there are separate crematoria for Brahmins and non-Brahmins. And in a bizarre case in Waganagere village in Gulbarga district of Karnataka, 120 Dalit households were forced to draw water from their well even after a dog fell in and died. During festivities, not only are they served food separately, but they have to bring their own plates and tumblers. Gulbarga, incidentally, has 126 cases registered under the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities Act 1989 and the Protection of Civil Rights Act 1955, the highest in Karnataka.

There is more in the article.

Droplets of Surprise

2009-07-30T18:05:00.003-05:00

I was surprised to learn that we are still figuring out how raindrops are formed. The small droplets we see are an effect of bigger drops becoming pancake like and exploding. There is a high speed video too to show the phenomenon here

The short lifetime of a raindrop is a complicated and explosive affair, physicists have revealed. Using high-speed video footage they have solved a longstanding conundrum of what determines the size of raindrops.
...
High-speed footage captured by Villermaux and colleague Benjamin Bossa at the University Institute of France in Paris suggests a more unexpected explanation. They think individual droplets inflate and then explode to create the smaller droplets so common at ground level.

Everyone must have experienced roadrage, thanks to drivers who couldn't care less about traffic rules. But, you would be again surprised to learn that these characters actually play a bigger role in easing congestion. Inspite of the wtf feeling you are having right now this is a fun read. From Physics Central:

According to the latest physics research, rule-breakersdrivers passing you on the wrong side or changing lanes too close to the intersectionactually help smooth the flow of traffic for the rest of us.
...
Physicists at the school uncovered this phenomenon while constructing a computer model of how a crowd of people move across a confined space, such as a pedestrian-only street.

Let there BE Engineers!!!

2009-07-30T15:30:00.003-05:00

It looks like the Engineering Education Bubble might soon pop in TN, where, now there are over 400 engineering colleges. With every damn politician and his cousin starting one every other day, the public might finally be waking up to this huge scam. The results of the first phase of the counselling session is especially heartening with many colleges having no takers.

From TOI

In a striking and grim indication of the number of BE/B.Tech seats in self-financing engineering colleges in the state overshooting the
demand, 42 institutions have failed to attract a single student in the ongoing Tamil Nadu Engineering Admissions (TNEA 2009) academic stream counselling.

...

Equally glaring is the fact that no student including from the vocational stream has opted to join the BE Information Technology course in 162 colleges and the Computer Science Engineering course in 141 institutions as on Monday morning

Yeah, Right!

2009-04-29T17:22:00.002-05:00

Pak and its Promises. From TimesofIndia:

Pakistan has said concerns that US arms it is seeking will be used against India are "misplaced" and Islamabad now understands that the "primary threat to our homeland today is not from our neighbor to the east" but from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on the western border.

Financial Crisis - Sovereign Defaults and Dollars

2009-04-26T17:47:00.008-05:00

This is a very interesting article from Telegraph. The implications of the article are dire.

Unless this capital is forthcoming, a clutch of countries will prove unable to roll over their debts at a bearable cost. Those that cannot print money to tide them through, either because they no longer have a national currency (Ireland, Club Med), or because they borrowed abroad (East Europe), run the biggest risk of default

...

US hedge fund Hayman Advisers is betting on the biggest wave of state bankruptcies and restructurings since 1934. The worst profiles are almost all in Europe – the epicentre of leverage, and denial. As the IMF said last week, Europe's banks have written down 17pc of their losses – American banks have swallowed half.
"We have spent a good part of six months combing through the world's sovereign balance sheets to understand how much leverage we are dealing with. The results are shocking," said Hayman's Kyle Bass.

...

A disturbing number of states look like Iceland once you dig into the entrails, and most are in Europe where liabilities average 4.2 times GDP, compared with 2pc for the US. "There could be a cluster of defaults over the next three years, possibly sooner," he said.
Research by former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff and professor Carmen Reinhart found that spasms of default occur every couple of generations, each time shattering the illusions of bondholders. Half the world succumbed in the 1830s and again in the 1930s.

...

The author concludes by saying that Europe will be a backwater at the end of this (in a few short years) and we might truly end up with a bipolar (at least economically) with China and US - G2 Nations according to him, leading the world albeit the US with a much diminished role compared to its peak.

It's well worth reading the whole article.

How much of it turns out to be true is to be seen, however much of what has been said has sound reasoning. US - with dollar being the reserve currency, might be able to print (dollars) its way out of this mess. What this does to the dollar is not difficult to guess. Given the massive debt that US has to raise in the short term, and since most emerging markets are in a turmoil of their own, US might have to pay more interest on it's treasuries. Many analysts say one of the most likely ways US will be repaying this debt (if it doesn't default) is by debt inflation. With China making noise about moving out of dollar (it is already having bilateral deals with close to a dozen countries to trade in Yuan instead of dollar) as a reserve currency, how long dollar can sustain without getting severely devalued is to be seen. However, in the short term, since China holds trillions in dollar holdings it wouldn't do anything radical to upset the value of dollar. But, it will not be easy for the US either to run huge deficits like it used and finance it with its treasury notes.

It might be a completely different world in just 10 years from now. (If the holes in Pensions funds, Social Security, Medicare are all taken into account with the baby boomers approaching their retirement age, it makes the picture even worse.)

How it affects us, our lives, our jobs, Indian economy, the geo-political scene is what i am really interested in. As and when i find analysis around this topic, i will be regularly updating it here.

Srilankan Crisis - A more nuanced view

2009-04-22T11:34:00.002-05:00

Here are a couple of articles that give a better idea of whats happening in Srilanka. Both are from Guardian.

First one - Sri Lanka's Divided Demonstrators:-

The well-organised and orchestrated public demonstrations belie the fact that many diaspora Tamils have been coerced into marching under LTTE flags. Many wishing to carry placards appealing to both the GoSL and the LTTE have been beaten and intimidated into marching only under anti-GoSL slogans. This has resulted in a one-sided protest campaign that ignores the fact that civilians trapped in the "no-fire zone" are held hostage by the LTTE, who shoot those seeking to escape, plant suicide bombers among escapees and conscript civilian children to fight alongside them. This has made it impossible for Sri Lankan peace activists to declare their solidarity with the demonstrators.

Sri Lankan activists have also had to contend with an authoritarian GoSL which, like all modern regimes, only allows embedded journalists access to war zones and displacement camps, and also intimidates, arrests, disappears and murders those who question the legitimacy of the war. Nor does it have a clear set of political proposals that address Tamil grievances.

Second One -
Tamils Have Nowhere to Turn :

The Tamils have suffered terribly both at the hands of the LTTE and successive Sinhala-dominated governments. Reconciliation with them will take a government that has greater reverence for secularism than the present one. Sri Lankans have become inured to the pervasive Sinhala-supremacist racism and religious bigotry that the present government has brought to Sri Lanka.

It is this racism and bigotry more than any passionate belief in the LTTE that has now pushed a desperate Tamil community towards the LTTE.

Indeed, it is an insult to the Tamil people that all they have to represent their cause for emancipation are the Tamil Tigers. A group that not only systematically eliminated the political leadership of the Sri Lankan Tamils but wiped out the entire moderate Sinhala leadership and prevented Tamils from voting in elections.

Both the articles are well worth a read.

Various Points

2009-04-19T20:03:00.013-05:00

After yet another hiatus, which is becoming ever more frequent, here is another attempt to kick start regular posting.

Let me save posts that require single-minded attention for later. Here is a collage of interesting tidbits:

For people interested in Indian Politics, Brijesh Nair has updates regularly at his blog. He is also conducting some interesting state specific polls too. Here you can predict the winners of each constituency in Tamil Nadu.

Shane Warne - chanakya, Drona and Arjuna all rolled into one, and his team had a bad start to IPL, which was a little surprising. But, this time Rajasthan Royals are sure missing last year's stalwarts like Sohail Tanvir and Shane Watson. Also, the conditions in SA might not be suited for everyone to throw their bat around. So, it would be interesting to see if Shane Warne's magic (in captaincy, his wizardry of leg spin can never be questioned) works.

Even as i have noted my disgust at the faux outrage and chest beating by our countrymen over Slumdog Millionaire here. I find little to no noise from the same crowd when a news like Rubina put for adoption for a lot of money by her father is out. Disgusted at our apathy to real suffering? Yes. Outraged at our faux outrage on reel issues? Absolutely. Any of this surprising? Not even close, i say to myself.

I have to go back to the crisis happening in SL. Even if we all assume that Prabhakaran represents everything that is evil, how can we turn a blind eye to the suffering of Tamil civilians? Wouldn't demonizing Prabhakaran and then not capturing him give the Sri Lankan government the much needed reason and excuse to use its military on the Tamils in Northern Srilanka as long as it sees fit, and also to never come to the negotiating table. It is time to force the SL govt and Tamils to the table and not keep this process hostage on a single issue like capture of Prabhakaran.

Our politicians have provided much needed comical relief with their utter shamelessness. Anyone who remembers Jaya throwing Vaiko in the slammer for over a year under POTA would be laughing out loud at this pic below. I surely did.

How many think that Indian Real Estate Bubble has burst and reached its bottom? DLF just asked the government to denotify four of the SEZs allotted to it due to a reduction in demand. More on economics later.

Thoppukaranam: Your way to becoming smarter!

2009-04-10T20:19:00.004-05:00

Don't know if Pillaiyar (Ganpathi for North Indians) cares about your thoppukaranams (sit ups), but at least you might become smart. Check this out.

A Ray of Hope : Elizabeth Warren

2009-04-08T20:45:00.002-05:00

Thanks to people like Elizabeth Warren, maybe US will pull through this crisis without transferring every last dollar to the bankers, that is if she is not forced out of her position.

Hotel Lobby Effect!!!

2009-04-07T16:44:00.002-05:00

Is it me or is there anyone else who feels like being in a Hotel Lobby when going to one of these many Hindu Temples with Marble interior, you know, with Marble floor, walls etc.,? Even the idols are made out of marble. Whenever i visit these temples, all i get is the feeling of being in an oh-so-run three star hotel lobby.

Partition: A look back at our history

2009-04-05T14:53:00.001-05:00

Watch Partition - The Day India Burned in Entertainment | View More Free Videos Online at Veoh.com

Must Watch (if you are interested in this economic crisis)

2009-04-04T09:48:00.002-05:00

If you still have doubt about the fraud all the banks in wall st committed. Check this out. A MUST watch.

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

Sri Lankan Crisis - Our Willful Ignorance

2009-03-29T21:57:00.004-05:00

Arundathi Roy, much reviled within the Indian middle class, has an article in Times of India about what is happening in Sri Lanka. I like her because, whatever her motive - hogging the limelight as many suggest or an opportunist, she asks some tough questions that we Indians never ask of ourselves. Here too she asks some pertinent questions.

From Times of India:

Why the silence? In another interview Mangala Samaraveera says, ‘‘A free media is virtually non-existent in Sri Lanka today.’’

Samaraveera goes on to talk about death squads and ‘white van abductions’, which have made society ‘‘freeze with fear’’. Voices of dissent, including those of several journalists, have been abducted and assassinated. The International Federation of Journalists accuses the government of Sri Lanka of using a combination of anti-terrorism laws, disappearances and assassinations to silence journalists.

There are disturbing but unconfirmed reports that the Indian government is lending material and logistical support to the Sri Lankan government in these crimes against humanity. If this is true, it is outrageous. What of the governments of other countries? Pakistan? China? What are they doing to help, or harm the situation?

More than the article itself I found the comments section very interesting. You can see a perfect schism between the opinions of Tamils (deduced from names) who have an idea of the history of the conflict and people from the rest of India who just don't have a clue but readily lump each and every Tamil with LTTE. What is happening in SL is tragic. Between the Tamil politicians who use this tragedy for their political gain and the rest of India which does not know what is happening nor wants to know what is happening, there is not much hope for Tamil civilians in SL.

Memo to BJP: India is a parliamentary democracy

2009-03-26T10:46:00.004-05:00

I know BJP does not believe a lot of things that we associate with India like plural, secular etc., However, i find it amusing that Advani is calling the PM for a US style debate on television. Hope Advani realizes India is a parliamentary democracy and not a Presidential form centered around one personality, at least for his sake.

From Times of India:

Senior leader and prime ministerial candidate of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) L K Advani on Thursday threw down the gauntlet, challenging Prime
Minister Dr Manmohan Singh to a live television debate like in the United States.

Either BJP (and Advani) are desparate or Advani's senility is catching up with him.

Our Judicial Priests: We are holier than thou

2009-03-24T15:20:00.003-05:00

Hmm..Our Highcourt judges feel they are beyond the law. Funny that this guy can't see the difference between independence and accountability. The third rail of our democracy claiming its holier than thou. It will be vey funny only if it ain't so sad.
From TOI:

Judges have to work according to law and without fear. For the proper functioning of judiciary it has to be liberated from all kinds of fear. Election Commission and other such institutions are vibrant because they are independent,’’ Justice Bhat observed.

LMAO

2009-03-10T01:37:00.001-05:00

Thanks to Ashank. Enjoy!!!

Amartya Sen on Recession

2009-03-09T18:42:00.001-05:00

India: IT, Recession and More

2009-02-23T23:32:00.008-06:00

Is the IT saga of India over? Are we seeing the demise of India's IT success story? Has the recession finally burst the IT bubble? These are questions that lurk in everyone's mind these days. These are important questions due to the visible effects this industry seemed to have for at least a decade. For the first time since independence, the best and the brightest chose jobs in private companies than government. A sense of the "harder i work, the more i earn" kinda sense started pervading amongst the youth. Also, the IT industry tended to erase the divisions created within govt departments due to the effects of Reservation (which simmers in the background in govt departments). But good things as all bad things don't last forever.

A sense of uncalled for over-confidence and euphoria started pervading. From being prudent savers (our parents are the best examples here) many became consumerist like Americans, running behind every gadget, latest cars. There is a problem when people take out a loan just to avoid taxes. It is all fine if these loans are short term and within someone's repaying capacity. But when a person making 50K-75K a month takes out 25-40L as loan for an apartment, it is mindless. They started believing this trend of sky high salaries will only keep growing. We all know what this has led to. A huge real-estate bubble. A 2400 sq.ft plot in suburban chennai going for more than a crore is a joke. A similar plot of land a couple of hours from chennai cost around 25 lakhs. You know it is a bubble when when a plot with no access to basic amenities like water, 24 hr electricity or public transportation costs that much. But everyone bought into the idea believing the IT boom would never end. With this recession, many would be either laid off or would be forced to take a pay cut which would drastically reduce the disposable income which in turn will affect the housing loans that our banks hold. This begs the question, are our banks in for some serious trouble like here in the US because of bad loans adding to our owes?

Our IT industry being what it is might have to go through a rough period because of this downturn. Even if it is able to make this through without much damage, the future for the IT professionals aren't looking great. When anyone from any background with a degree can either do a computer course or do a MCA to move into the field and given India's scale, we know there is going to be a too much supply than demand one day. The recession is only making it faster. This on the long run might help in keeping the wage arbitrage in favor of India, but the corollary is that the high pay packages associated with IT will be a thing of the past. Also, even before the recession there was a school of thought that said India is losing its edge due to wage inflation and shortage of qualified talent. In either case it is looking ugly.

How this is going to play out in the short/medium term? Given the US political compulsions and the steps being taken(US has removed the tax cuts for offshoring), the short term is very bad, especially people who are graduating from a variety of streams and who were planning to move to BPO or IT/ITES jobs. For people who are already working in this field, many would be able to ride this storm. However, there would be a significant portion of the workforce which would either end unemployed or under-employed for a sometime. For the lucky ones with jobs would have to take steep pay cut. Since the US tax incentive is out, the clients might push Indian companies to cut their margin which will surely affect the pay and jobs. All we can hope in the medium term is that this US would take all the right steps to avert this recession from becoming a depression. If the economies around the world start recovering by 2011, that would be good news. But the bad news is that no one knows how it is going to play out.

Many have worried during the boom times that the best minds from a wide variety of streams are moving to IT field because of the pay robbing other fields of quality manpower. This phenomenon is everywhere. But it always evens out, sometimes in very ugly ways. There is not much the government can do here unless it starts its older license raj days. If many of the industries are growing at similar rate and the rate of return is more or less equitable, it can prevent such exodus. But none of us want our govt to decide how many can go into CS and how many want to do accounting. Just like in the stock market and real estate market where we saw irrational exuberance, the IT job market nearly made a fool out of everyone to believe it will last forever. This is only natural. Some people might be very badly hurt in this process, but it is unavoidable.

In a way this recession might be a boon in disguise. The real estate market and the high inflation made it almost impossible for people who are not into IT to lead a decent life in the metros. This drop should bring back the prices to levels where the rest can at least think of educating their children, much like my father who though was not earning much was able to afford good education for me and my brother. Doing the same job he would not be able to do that again now. So, in a larger sense the society can have a sigh of relief and other fields might look equally lucrative if not better.

The biggest worry for the government apart from the slowdown in the economy is to find ways to employ the young and unskilled in the long run. India in a few years would have the highest number of youth in the working age. It already is the youngest nation. For whatever its worth IT/ITES industry employed barely 2 million in all these years. Some might argue that due to the high consumption of the IT types there would be a trickle down effect which is true, however, as we are seeing this is not enough or a long term solution. Do i have a solution for this? No. Investing in infrastructure, agriculture and other social development projects which could employ unskilled youth in large numbers can be a start.

If this demographic is forgotten, we would only see outfits like VHP, Bajrang Dal, Ram Sena (and their political masters) recruiting these disgruntled youth for talibanisation of India. We are already seeing this with the Mangalore incident and all the valentine day episodes. If India is to avoid a Maoists take over like in Nepal or talibanisation of our country in the name of Hindu culture or naxalism becoming an all India phenomenon, it has to act with a longterm vision. People who claim that we have survived this long and we will survive in future forget the difference between surviving and living. When more than half the population is surviving with less than what many pay for a coffee each day, there would be a backlash sooner or later. If unemployment, recession, climate change, water problem all start to hit together we won't be in a position to respond to any of them. But here i am hoping that would be the worst case scenario and we would never have to deal with all of them together. We will surely have to face each of them for sure.

Rahman and Pookutty are atleast a couple of reasons to cheer about in spite of the dire mood of the post :-)

Bailout : Lets hear from Stiglitz

2009-02-10T23:09:00.002-06:00

We have all wondered how the morons at Wall St can be so oblivious to what is happening around them? You can see that in action here, at least it comes close. The morons at CNBC asking for stock tips when these guys are basically telling we are very close to the edge of a financial abyss. Surreal. Watch here.

Rahman Wins BAFTA :-)

2009-02-08T18:48:00.001-06:00

Yet another step towards Oscars!

Obama its time to pull a Bush to get this economy back on track

2009-02-07T20:14:00.006-06:00

The economy is on a downward tailspin and with each passing day a few thousands more lose their jobs. There is a consensus that this is next only to the Great Depression of 1930s only because this time we assume that the government will act decisively and correctly. So, any inaction or hand wringing can produce a depression out of this financial turmoil. Is Obama showing the leadership we all expect out of him (and the democrats in congress despite their pusillanimous performance during Bush years)? The answer is a clear cut NO.

Having got a great victory and still during the so called "honeymoon" period he should have used that political capital to tackle the biggest financial crisis in over 70 years (Remember, Bush wanted to use his political capital to privatize Social Security). This is the time to show leadership. He should realize this is not the time to sing kumbaya and talk about the virtues of bipartisanship. His approach to the stimulus till now has been a huge failure. If one gives around 30% of ones plan to the opposition for their support and gets zero votes, what else can we call it. I am not sure if he is naive to be taken for a ride like this by the republicans. This already compromised stimulus package is further diluted in the senate to the tune of 100 billion dollars. Do the democrats even know how to pull a punch? All i see is them waiting to cave to every ridiculous demand of the republicans. This is the place where the President, much like what Bush did during his time, threatens with a veto and gets a stimulus package that would work. This is not the time for bloody 'bipartisanship-at-the-cost-of-nation'.

There are fights that have to be fought and there are times for negotiation and deliberation. Though many in the west might not know, this is the crux of Bhagavad Gita. There are fights which have to be fought. One can hate what all Bush stood for. But that doesn't mean just because he was partisan, you would want to act different for the sake of acting different. What matters is the final result. Bipartisanship could be a means to an end. Not an end in itself. This is the time for Obama to pull a Bush. Veto this ridiculous stimulus package and force the congress to work on a more workable package within this week. Let them stay in the Hill 24/7 until they get this done.

Bush used all his political capital and power to do everything that is wrong. Its time to use all those tools to do the right thing. This is not the time to renounce those powers and tools just to differentiate oneself from Bush and the Republicans. Brains alone are useless if you don't have cajones.

US Senators against non-immigrant H1B visas

2009-02-06T16:47:00.008-06:00

As the economic turmoil gets severe this is a time for all politicians to score some points. H1B is one of the easiest to score such a point. After all, targeting foreigners and portraying them as greedy crooks ready to grab a job that belonged to an American is so easy. In this time of high unemployment and when emotions are running high, most people wouldn't be ready to do a simple logical reasoning to see through these political sound bites.

From Yahoo:

In what could be a cause of worry for Indian IT professionals, two US Senators have introduced amendments to the economic stimulus bill, which if passed would prevent US companies receiving the federal bailout money, from hiring H-1B visa holders. The amendment if approved by the Senate would have an immediate impact on Indian IT professionals, as it is they who are the major beneficiaries of the H-1B visa programme.

Let us try to understand what the implications of this are. These senators are barking up the wrong tree. The banks that take money are in a very bad state and are struggling to survive. As much as the banks are recapitalized with taxpayer's money, if the senators have their way, they are going to make it difficult for these banks to recruit the best of talent since they are cut off from a significant portion of available talent pool making it expensive to recruit and retain talent. This puts these already struggling banks at a severe disadvantage compared to its competitors. Throwing yet another road block in the way of these struggling banks is not the best way to revive them. While at the same time money is being thrown at them because they are too large to fail making them huge cash burning institutions.

Are there are misuses of H1s, L1s and other visas? Yes. But it is incumbent on these legislators to rewrite these visa rules to be more effective. Not punish the H1 holders and banks. But this is easy compared to proactively legislating to improve the visa rules to reduce misuse and to retain well trained and skilled talent. Like any politician around the globe these senators have taken the easiest route and portray themselves as working towards American interests, when they are not.

Many Americans who are hit by this recession and losing jobs on a daily basis take kindly to this. This is perfectly understandable in a situation like this when emotions are running high. I cannot sit here and tell them to think rationally when they end up without a job and have a family to feed. But what i am trying to say is that the legal immigrants who come here and get their masters and ph.ds are valuable assets for any country and it is in America's interest to retain the best. Many still think of India and China as call centres and sweatshops alone. However, it is only part of the story.

India and China with their huge populations will always have wage advantage. However, they are not the India and China of 1950s or 1970s. America ascended to the top right after World War 2 when much of Europe was devastated and much of Asia was illiterate and barely coming out of colonial rule. Now these countries have invested huge sums in improving their infrastructure and education. They are in a much better position to compete with US. Europe with its huge market and much better social equity and security would also give US a run for its money. At this juncture throwing out this essential ingredient for success, viz skilled talent, for political reasons, though might look very attractive in the very short term, is incredibly futile.

So, my request to Americans, if you want push your congressmen to act on the visas, push them to reform it in a way that makes the program effective. Making arbitrary blanket calls for banning would only put America and hence its people at a disadvantage. People like me who are here and who have made US their home, but who don't have a voice like you citizens, do want America to prosper.

Here is a radio program discussing Reverse Brain Drain.

Desis: What are our options during this recession

2009-02-04T20:31:00.007-06:00

All of us already know that we are going through one of the biggest global financial turmoil in a long long time. Governments across the world are trying to address this with pumping huge sums of money into their economies. However, these measures have been inadequate. There have been job losses across fields in almost every country. Given that US is one of the severely hit countries, within which tech sector is one of the biggest casualties, what does the outlook look like for us desis who are employed mostly in this field.

Before going any further let me make it clear that this post is just to throw my thoughts to hopefully start a conversation which might throw light and make us understand the risks and opportunities in our immediate and distant future.

The US economy is on a downward spiral as consumers here tighten their belts and since 70% of US economy depends on consumption there is a positive feedback of bad news. As more people get laid off, the less they consume leading to more businesses going bust. Also, the US was flush with cheap credit for the past 5-6 years and there was mindless consumption. Even if the economy recovers in a period 2-3 years there is no reason to believe that things would go back to 2006-2007 level consumption. And we desis typically are in the tech side which are in many cases based on the consumer products (like cell phones and other gadgets) or discretionary spending.

Given this situation what can we do to get through this recession? From my perspective, we have three options in the long term. The short term strategy of moving to a consultant (if you lose your FT position) is ok if one holds an optimistic view.
1) Go back to school to upgrade our skills.
2) Go back to India
3) Hope for the best.
Let us look each of them in a little detail.

Back to School: This is the best option if one is not married yet. There are a number of new skills one can learn to be ready. This is very important for us in the tech field. No matter how much you think you know, there is a need for updating oneself throughout the career. But there are a few considerations.
1) Given the budget cuts all across, the universities aren't going to have funds to provide scholarships. So most likely fees is going to be from our pockets.
2) How easy is it for us to jump between H1 to F1 and back to H1. I don't think its as easy as many would like to think.
3) Which field to do? Many desis think of MBA immediately. However is it such a great idea? Many Americans take to MBAs anyways and due to this downturn there will be a huge number of MBA grads who will be coming out at the same time. Also, people graduating out now will most likely be unemployed or underemployed during this period. So, is it wise to take on so much debt or burn all of our savings during this lean period on MBA?
4) Many out there are not Ph.d material, nor are many in the mindset to put another 3-5 years in school just based on this downturn.

However, if one is financially well settled without many responsibilities at this point, this is probably the best time to get your MBA or any additional degree or certification. If one has a family to support (either here or in India) or not on a firm footing financially, venturing into another degree, putting oneself without a source of income for another two years is pretty risky.

Go back to India: This is considered to be the worst case scenario by many desis (who ever goes back?). But i am not sure if this is the worst case scenario. This is a good option if we have a decent offer back home (i understand the a decent offer means different things to different people). Instead of spending our hard earned savings to get through this pretty long recession without a job (especially if one has to support a family), this would be a better option. One can keep earning, gain more experience. Once we have more experience (if you have a masters or if you already have GC) we can always come back when the market moves up. With most of us being in the tech field, finding that decent offer is the biggest obstacle since our IT industry is solely dependent on production support kinda roles for the MNCs in US and Europe. How our IT industry would do over the next 2 or 3 years if the state of the economy deteriorates further in the US and Europe is anybody's guess. I would think even if there are no job cuts, there would be severe pressure on the pay scale. I believe the days of unheard of pays and pay hikes (in Indian context) would become a thing of the past. But if one is from a pure EE field and can get in one of the research centers, the probability of losing the job is much less though the kind of research being done might not be exactly on par with the work being done here. All in all, personally i favor this option of keeping my savings and gaining experience over sitting here without a job and not ready to spend on education.

Hope for the best: This is the option most of us after a lot of thinking and anguishing would take, not because of logical reasoning, but because it is the easiest. It is so much easier to postpone tougher decisions for later than to make them now. What many would reason is to have a project for at least 4 to 6 months a year for the next 2 years and live off of that income. This might be the one many would be hoping for. But this strategy is based on the assumption that things would get ok within two years. However, it 2 took years for the economy to come back on track after the 2001 tech bust. But what has happened now is bigger and deeper than anything that happened in 2001 and this time almost every field is severely hit. So I am not sure how prudent it is to use this as an example.

All in all, in my opinion, going to school if possible after thinking hard on the field is the best option in the short and long term if feasible. With a family and if GC is available, starting to look at opportunities in India would be prudent. This would bring down the expense, give the children a taste of India. The third option though looks like best of both the worlds, it is on a longer term the worst option. It might end up putting one in a back foot since one does not learn anything new, nor gain relevant experience and in the worst case might end up losing the savings too.

Furthermore, it is not easy to save in this country, especially if only one is working in a household. Brijesh has given the general picture of this here.

Yet Another Feather in TN's Cap

2009-01-27T12:35:00.002-06:00

Tamilnadu comes last in a nationwide list for reading skills amongst its primary school students. Thanks to the criminals running the government! They have managed to plunge the state in literal darkness literally with their power management. Now on way to plunging the young minds in darkness. The old man and his criminal family will not rest until they make a Bihar out of TN. God Save TN from these thugs!

From TOI:

According to the 2008 Annual Status of Education Report (ASER), released by NGO Pratham Foundation, primary education in Tamil Nadu fared poorly as compared to all other states.

With only 54.7% of students in classes I and II able to read letters and words, TN figured last on the nation-wide list. Kerala and Goa shared the top slot, registering 98.6%. In Karnataka, 83.4% students and in Puducherry 73.5% students of classes I and II could read letters and words.

More Rahman: After all, its oscar times - From Doordarshan to MTV

2009-01-23T00:23:00.002-06:00

One of Rahman's earliest Interviews

Rahman in MTV

Obama Swears in

2009-01-20T11:13:00.001-06:00

Will this be the beginning of a new era or is this a case of old wine in new bottle? We will have to wait and watch.

Satyam : Some thoughts

2009-01-19T15:37:00.007-06:00

As the biggest corporate fraud of our country is being investigated there are more questions at the end of each day than answers. Things are only getting murkier. Like everyone else I too am hooked on to this story and follow it on a daily basis. Though we are still in the very initial stages of the investigation, there is one aspect of this whole episode that stood out for me. (As more information started coming out it became evident.) Maybe it has to do with our legacy of being under foreign rule for too long or maybe it has to do with our servile attitude.

The thing that stood out for me was the reaction of Satyam employees. Here is an educated, hardworking, upwardly mobile crowd that has been betrayed by their boss to the fullest. After all their effort he comes and says 7000 crores does not exist. The share value plummets to close to 6 bucks from around 150 odd rupees. He wipes out the value, trust, brand of their company (many of the employees are also share holders) and sits at home for three days. The government did not take action immediately. Did not move in to stop him from fleeing to another country (that he did not run does not exonerate the govt), nor did Satyam management file a complaint against Ramalinga Raju. Amidst all these, there was no sense of outrage, anger that I expected from the employees. They did not take to the road, raise slogans for action. They did not question the inaction by either the government or their upper management. Instead, they sat tight in their chairs (probably in shock) mutely witnessing the whole thing as if it is not their problem.

I am not sure I would have acted differently. After all, I am a product of the same culture. Nor am I judging Satyamites. Rather, I am just making a few observations about the whole thing. This leads me to wonder if this is exactly the reason why nothing in our country gets done or why anyone can get away with any fraud.

Worse still, there are people who sympathize with Ramalinga Raju. Their arguments range from stupid (like he created so many jobs and wealth etc.,) to ridiculous (like when all the politicians are going scot-free after so many scandals, why punish him). There are some who say Raju is an honest man because he accepted the truth. (wow! That one was good.) Though these arguments are as asinine as could be, the larger point is, have we become so numb after one scandal after another (listed below) that we don’t care anymore? What was even more outrageous was that a few Chartered Accountants came on NDTV Profit and claimed that PwC (the auditing firm for Satyam) itself should not be punished for the error of a few. This is the same firm that was involved in the Global Trust Bank Scam too. This is nothing but one set of crooks (CAs) covering the sorry ass of another.

Major Scams:
1) Ketan Parekh scam,
2) Harshad Mehta scam,
3) Bofors Guns scam
4) Lalu's fodder for cattle scam,
5) PV narsimha Rao's JMM MPs bribery scam,
6) Urea scam on PVNarsimha Rao's son.
7) Hawala scam
8) scam unearthed by sting operation of Tehelka.com on India's defence ministry when NDA was under power
9) Krushi Bank, vasavi, prudential bank, Global trust bank, scams in Hyderabad
10)Telgi stamp scam

Our media which likes to attach anything that is American to India shamelessly (it called Mumbai attacks as India’s 9/11. How sick is that?) is calling this India’s Enron. If you watch any of the Indian (English) news channels, the guests who come in to discuss too say that fraud happens everywhere and immediately point to Enron and worldcom and say stricter regulations are ‘NOT’ needed. What these guys don’t tell you is that after these scandals US brought in very strict accounting laws, the most well known being the Sarbanes-Oxley act.

The example of Satyamites’ reaction to this is only but a very clear example of our society. Even if we are the victims of the fraud, we are ready to take it silently. We are not ready to even show our disgust and anger, much less fight for justice. Hence the long list of scams which no justice being done in any case. We could say law will take its course and that is the reason Satyamites waited. But we all know how many loopholes there are in our system. So, that is but a very convenient excuse, much like the ones we give ourselves to get through the day.

Does this mean this is the end of Indian IT story or is there no hope for India? No, we as a country has withstood a lot and will stand a lot. However, this episode is yet another step back in the steady decline of our country. How long before the wheel comes of this train wreck that is India (for the middle class and poor. The rich can fend for themselves anywhere) is unknown.

Rare Interview with the Great Shivaji Ganesan

2009-01-17T10:30:00.003-06:00

Slumdog Millionaire : The Cult of Popcorn Outrage strikes again

2009-01-13T17:31:00.009-06:00

Slumdog Millionaire captivated my interest with its racing screenplay and rousing music. Based in Mumbai, a metropolis of monumental contradictions, the protagonists are from its slums which is very much a part of Mumbai. Instead of appreciating the hope the movie represents (that is how i saw it), many desis are agonized that the movie portrays the "wrong" side of India. I find it infuriating that these self-professed guardians of Indian Interests can't even digest that the forgotten side of Indian population (which runs into hundreds of millions in number) were acknowledged of their existence by a western movie.

These middle-class brethren of mine want anyone and everyone to see only the rosy side, which is fictitious, much like as shown in Bollywood movies nowadays. It is almost impossible to find a movie from Bollywood which attempts to look at the other end of the society. Every fricking movie is a fantasy overload with rich and super rich people agonizing over their pathetic love life. Probably that is the reason these guys are not able to digest when someone shows a little bit of reality. I can understand the Americans not able to digest the violence shown towards the poor given their narrow world view which never extends beyond their city and their neighborhood. But i find it amusing that we Indians seeing the poor and living with them on a daily basis find it shocking to see them on screen.

The scene that was over the top was the Amitabh scene. But that was a scene used to show the craze for movie stars amongst Indians. Since when did we become so touchy that we can't laugh at ourselves or too dense to not understand a metaphor. Its a fact of life that in our country that men go down manholes and sewage tanks to clean them up. I wish these people show all their outrage toward this practice.

In a country of over a billion people with more than half of it poor or desperately poor, it is no surprise that people get exploited. It is the reality. We could choose to live in denial and get outraged sitting in a multiplex (with our soda and pop-corn) watching a movie that shows a little bit of what happens next to us on a daily basis. Or, we can choose to watch the movie for what it is and be outraged at what happens in our society.

Between the two, i would like to see us choosing the latter, if not immediately at least in the future.

Japan goes tamil

2009-01-07T19:41:00.002-06:00

Satyam : Does it add up?

2009-01-07T17:26:00.003-06:00

Chronological events:

1) Satyam says it has over 1 billion dollars in cash reserves.

2) Satyam is sued by Upaid, a British telecom solutions firm, for 1.6 billion dollars in the US. In all likelihood media reports say Upaid will win.

3) Ramalinga Raju then tries to buy Maytas Properties and Infrastructure for, wait, yeah the same 1.6 billion dollars of Satyam's money.

4) The plan backfired and now Ramalinga Raju claims all the cash reserves and other profits are all fictitious.

Now, does that add up or is there more than what meets the eye here?

Tamil Nadu Worse than Bihar

2009-01-06T16:50:00.006-06:00

Finally the cat is out of the bag. The Chief Election Commissioner has called out TamilNadu and its criminal enterprises including DMK, AIADMK, PMK et al., In a scathing pronouncement he has said TN is worse than even Bihar and UP in election malpractices. It might not be surprising for people who have been following the state politics.

The state has deteriorated from one of the leading industrialized states in the Union to a state where Power is being rationed. This in a state which had surplus power a couple of years ago. A state where leaders like Kamaraj worked hard to provide education for the downtrodden to a state that finds it important to distribute color televisions rather than improving the govt schools. A state where giving SOPs to the population (throw away fiscal responsibility) is much more important than improving the economy. A state where the state govt starts its own cable channel and provider for a family dispute. The list does not stop there. The more you dig the worse it gets. Right from the politicization of the Srilankan tamil issue to the goondagiri by the thugs spawned by Karunanidhi (azhagiri episode) the list is endless. J Jayalalitha is even worse. PMK and MDMK are cut from the same fabric as the previous two.

For TN to regain its position as the one of the most educated, industrialized and progressive states in India, the criminals in DMK, AIADMK, PMK and MDMK have to be rejected by us. It is time we move to a third option other than choosing between a criminal dynasty and egotistical dictator. We should keep the communal (BJP), caste based (PMK) parties at bay too. Given our history, i would rather give the benefit of doubt to a new comer like vijayakanth and hope he comes out stronger in the coming elections.

Let us not let these thieves rob us anymore.

Ghajini (hindi)

2009-01-04T14:24:00.004-06:00

Finally, hindi cinema gets a heroine who can act since Kajol. All the talentless hot babes of hindi cinema who can't act for their lives must be having nightmares.

India, china and pakistan: A nuclear walmart in our name

2009-01-03T17:12:00.003-06:00

China just didn't stop with giving Pakistan the nuclear weapon design. From US NEWS:
"

Under Pakistani president Benazir Bhutto, the country built its first functioning nuclear weapon. We believe that during Bhutto's term in office, the People's Republic of China tested Pakistan's first bomb for her in 1990.There are numerous reasons why we believe this to be true, including the design of the weapon and information gathered from discussions with Chinese nuclear experts. That's why the Pakistanis were so quick to respond to the Indian nuclear tests in 1998. It only took them two weeks and three days. When the Soviet Union took the United States by surprise with a test in 1961, it took the U.S. seventeen days to prepare and test, a device that had been on hand for years. The Pakistani response makes it clear that the gadget tested in May 1998 was a carefully engineered device in which they had great confidence.

Read the complete interview, its pretty interesting.

No wonder A.Q.Khan was handing it out to other nations like candy. After all, if they had to work really hard to come up with this on their own, they would have understood its sensitivity and importance. One does not understand the value of something that is gained easily. It holds particularly true here. Only a lot of other nations have to be worried about their safety because of two of the biggest criminal proliferating countries of Pakistan and China. Its our bad luck that they are our neighbors.

It can happen only in India - videos

2009-01-02T18:19:00.003-06:00

Adventurous yet stupid:

Hilarious:

Morons:

Are you kidding me:

Ultimate:
I couldn't embed this video, but you can watch it here.

Backfire:

Found in the Web

2008-12-31T22:23:00.001-06:00

Discovery Mysteries Of Asia - The Lost Temples of India

Wish Everyone A Very Happy 2009!!

2008-12-31T18:12:00.003-06:00

A thing of beauty is a joy forever!

HAPPY NEW YEAR FOLKS!

India, US and Pakistan : Tale of a choatic democracy, a super power and a rogue nation

2008-12-29T16:04:00.014-06:00

There is a striking difference in the way Israel and India handled their response to terror attacks. While the former is an example of extreme response, which is not justified, the latter is an example of inaction. In both cases the reason for the attacks, and who is right and who is not, is rather complicated. I am not condoning the attacks either in India or Israel, both are highly despicable and the perpetrators should be punished to the maximum. However, the driving force behind these attacks are rather complicated, which elements in Palestine and in Pakistan have used to take advantage. Both involve a land dispute where both sides feel they are on the right side and also involve impoverished populations who think they are justified in their terror tactics.

While Israel is killing civilians for the act of a few, India is constrained by the same consideration (also, the power disparity between India and Pakistan is not the same as Israel and Palestine). It would be a fool's errand to start a war against Pakistan for the actions of LeT, JeM etc. But, lest we forget, Pakistani Govt is equally culpable. This begs the question, how should India handle the current situation when

a) Pakistan claims that the attackers are non-state actors, thereby acquitting itself of any responsibility
b) It is not ready to take any action against these so called non-state actors despite knowing their location.
c) Not willing to accept that the Mumbai attacks were carried out by pakistanis inspite of overwhelming evidence.
d) Has safe havens for all kind of terrorists in parts of its territory where it necessarily doesn't have any control. It also doesn't want other countries which are victims of these terrorists' actions to take any action either. A very convenient excuse indeed.
e) Not ready to give up terrorists like Dawood Ibrahim who are directly implicated in earlier attacks. If this is not a safe haven for a terrorist, then what is?
f) Pakistan Govt doesn't have control over either its military or its intelligence service.

Furthermore, a financially bankrupt country with a very feudal and dysfunctional society, Pakistan has nothing much to lose in case of a war with India and hence it threatens with a nuclear attack very easily knowing fully well that it will be the one that will be obliterated in such an exchange. Pakistan fully knows that India has a lot more to lose as a country in such an exchange. Given this background, what are the options left to India?

India has rightfully kept all third parties out of the Kashmir issue. However, we should at the same time wonder if any solution that India might negotiate with the Pakistani Govt will hold without the involvement of its military/intelligence agencies (its military vetoed Zardari's promise ISI's chief will come to India in a day). Any negotiation with Pakistan should involve its military for the same reason. Since the only power which holds any sway with the Pakistani military is US, it might have to at some point get involved to underwrite the whole treaty. For this reason, all the talk about soft diplomacy, back door diplomacy and its all other connotations are moot. There is no point in India signing a treaty with Pakistani Govt which is toothless without a stake from Pak military.

With China ready to use Pakistan to slow down India and get us tied down in South Asia, and US willing to turn a blind eye towards Pakistan's involvement in every other terrorist activity, the odds are stacked against India. It requires years of diplomatic effort to first isolate Pakistan and then squeeze it when it really hurts. This requires that India should always be on the look out for such an opportunity, instead of getting carried away with brotherhood sentimentality that affects our politicians so easily. A long memory and a ruthless pursuit of our interests are what is needed from India's side. (No, Narendra Modi is not an answer).

India should use all its diplomatic clout (for whatever its worth) to hold Pakistan accountable for every penny of loan or aid it gets from IMF, World Bank and other donors. These institutions shouldn't be subsidizing the terror acts in India. Much of the money Pakistan gets is anyways diverted to ISI and military.

It is not an easy situation for India and it cannot (and should not) be cavalier like Israel. This should not, however, mean that the Indian politicians blame the complication to absolve themselves of their incompetence.

Merry Christmas To All!!!

2008-12-24T21:24:00.003-06:00

Vote for Sale!

2008-12-24T15:36:00.006-06:00

Yet another reality check about our democratic tradition that we are proud about and about which we crow at a drop of a hat. From TOI:

The CMS study has Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar trailing Karnataka in 'vote for cash' phenomenon. The report bluntly states, "The recent assembly elections in Karnataka in 2008 have set a new benchmark in purchasing votes." Bribing menace was found to be lower in Left Front-ruled states of Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura (in May 2008).

Sadly, vote buying was rampant in highly literate states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Of interest to the current state bypolls is that CMS data has Doddaballapur topping the list in bribing voters compared with other assembly segments. In a study conducted in seven segments, Doddaballapur polled 57%, while Arabhavi stood last with 16% of voters given or taken cash to vote for a particular political party.

Maybe we should clean up our mess before pontificating about democracy to others.

WTF of the day

2008-12-22T19:50:00.003-06:00

From Guardian:

Saudi girl, eight, married off to 58-year-old is denied divorce

An eight-year old Saudi Arabian girl who was married off by her father to a 58-year-old man has been told she cannot divorce her husband until she reaches puberty.
[]
Relatives said the marriage had not been consummated and that the girl was still living with her mother. They said that the father had set a verbal condition by which the marriage was not to be consummated until the girl turns 18 - although it was unclear how this could be enforced. The father agreed to marry off his daughter for a dowry of 30,000 riyals (£5,400) as he was facing financial problems.

Its interesting that women always end up getting a raw deal, both in societies that give dowry for girls or the ones that take (India and Saudi).

Huh?!

2008-12-22T13:37:00.004-06:00

According to TimesofIndia, TN has come out on top in e-governance. From TOI:

According to a recent survey by IDC Dataquest, Tamil Nadu has been ranked No. 1 in e-governance with satisfaction levels among citizens and businesses quite high.

Falling from the top position in the list was Delhi, which stood at No. 1 last year, and has dropped down to No. 3 in the all India ranking.

Among the top citizen services were water utility, police, security, education and other civic amenities, while the business index saw best satisfaction levels in issuance of licences and permits, government tenders, and financial assistance.

Huh?! I mean, how bad are the other states doing then for TN to come on top?

A R Rahman : Up close with the man himself!

2008-12-21T14:20:00.000-06:00

Modi - Subsidizing TATA for building Nano

2008-12-18T16:48:00.004-06:00

Modi gives away 30000 crores and hides it away from the public to bring TATA to gujarat, costing the exchequer 60000 rs for every Nano built. No wonder Ratan Tata finds him the best CM in India. Even i can run a business if the govt will subsidize that much for my production. Also, i would like to see what all the free market zealots who don't like subsidies to farmers stand on this issue.

From Hindu:

The Narendra Modi government is reported to have offered over Rs. 30,000 crore in sops to Tata Motors to bring its Nano car project to Gujarat.

The government has agreed to not only provide a soft loan of Rs. 9,570 crore at a negligible interest of 0.1 per cent for setting up the project but also defer repayment for 20 years, besides initially meeting all the cost of infrastructure development, cut in power tariff rates and an expenditure of Rs. 700 crore on shifting machinery and equipment from Singur in West Bengal to Sanand.

What does he do when the document containing the details comes out. He orders an inquiry into the leak of the document to the public, not explain why he did what he did. Maybe thats too much ask.

Its so sad that many think this communal demagouge has answers for all the problems India faces.

Satyam - An Untruthful family story

2008-12-18T15:46:00.005-06:00

So you are running a publicly traded company which has $1 Billion in cash. Your sons' business ventures weren't doing that great. You want them to make a lot of money, even when the economy is in shambles and the sector your sons' are in hit hard. So, What do you do? You agree to buy out your sons' businesses for 1.6 billion dollars with the company's money. So, that leaves you and your family 1.6 billion in cash and around 400 million hole in the company's balance sheet for the shareholders to worry about. How is that for a family story?

Thats what Satyam's Ramalinga Raju tried to pull with the acquisition of Maytas properties and Maytas Infrastructure. And know what?! He almost got away with it.....

Desis with Dollars II - UPDATED!!!

2008-12-15T19:08:00.011-06:00

pic from yahoo ($ vs Re):

The dollar exchange rate is one of the things always on our minds. I have linked up some stuff on this topic earlier here. Given the credit crisis, and a counter intuitive dollar rally has all of us wondering how long this would continue and where would the dollar settle down. Like many I too expected the dollar to peter down back to the early 40s and late 30s vs Rupee as the magnitude of the crisis started to become clear. Instead, dollar began to rally reaching record highs vis-a-vis Rupee this december, leaving many of us scratching our heads. Now we know the reason. For the uninitiated, it was basically because of damage control here in the US. As the credit crisis hit home here in the US, all the FIIs and others who had invested in India started pulling back to take care of the fiscal situation. Since all these payments are in dollars, there was a huge outflow of dollars from India, leading to a stronger dollar. This happened not just with respect to India, Dollar has been strengthening against most currencies.

Experts, however, feel that this dollar run might be petering out and is poised to weaken as US pumps in trillions of dollars into the system to come out of the current liquidity trap and loosen credit. From the article in Bloomberg

The biggest foreign-exchange strategists and investors say the best may be over for the dollar after a four-month, 24 percent rally.

The currency weakened 5.9 percent measured by the trade- weighted Dollar Index after strengthening between July and November as investors bought the greenback to flee riskier assets and repay dollar-denominated loans from lenders reining in credit. Ever since peaking on Nov. 21, the dollar fell against all 16 of the most-widely traded currencies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

There are still skeptics to this reasoning who say that this dollar rally hasn't peaked yet and there is still juice left in the dollar. From the same article:

Dollar bulls say it’s a mistake to bet against the currency now because Treasury yields are falling to record lows even as the government prepares to sell more than $1 trillion of debt, a sign there’s no end in sight to demand for the safest U.S. assets. They also say the yen, which typically rallies as risky assets decline, is appreciating.

“The yen’s strength falls into our theory that the risk- aversion trade is not off the table,” said Peter Rosenstreich, chief market analyst at Geneva-based currency trading firm ACM Advanced Currency Markets. “The fact that the yen continues to gain strength validates our theory in the longer term, the dollar safe-haven trade is not done yet.”

Meanwhile closer home Rupee is moving upward against Dollar keeping up with the global trend. From Economic Times

The rupee closed at 48.05 against dollar, off its high of 47.92. This is its strongest since November 11, and gaining 0.8% from its previous close. Dealers said that the activity was very erratic on Monday, with a lot of banks covering their short dollar positions and there was also some oil buying.

So, would this trend be a long lasting one or a glitch? Should we hold our savings here as dollars or send it back home immediately to cash in on the current rate? No one can give a definitive answer. There are too many variables at play here. However, one thing is for sure, given all the excesses in the wall street and the amount of money being thrown at this problem, dollar has to go down. It might not happen when we think it will, but it has to. Just like the credit crisis, many economists predicted the real estate to burst by 2006, yet it took two more years, but it did burst. I would bet my money on shorting the dollar and sending as much as possible back home and that is what i am doing ;).

Update:

Economic Times seems to agree with the conclusion that the days of a strong dollar is perhaps over and that rupee would settle at 45 against a dollar. From Economic Times:

NEW DELHI: The rupee is climbing back to positions of strength previously held and may soon breach the Rs 45-per dollar barrier, say analysts. The surge is attributed to rising capital inflows, narrowing trade deficits and the weakening of dollar against major currencies.
....
Overseas funds were net buyers of Indian stocks in the five days to December 12, the longest stretch in almost eight months. “With inflows strengthening, the pressure on rupee is easing. Net buying by FIIs for the month and easing trade deficit is putting rupee on a strong ground,” said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank. “Soaring oil prices and its impact on dollar demand is no longer a worry. With some normalisation of the pattern of capital flows, the rupee should move back towards its fundamental trend, which is to appreciate. I am expecting the upward leg to start from here on with minor disruptions in between,” said Crisil chief economist DK Joshi.
....
Due to heavy selling by FIIs and appreciation of the US dollar, RBI had to sell a record $20.63 billion during October to check the steep depreciation of the currency. Forex reserves have depleted by nearly $64 billion since April and is currently hovering around $246 billion.

That Ought to Shut Them Up!!!!!

2008-12-15T12:23:00.001-06:00

Enough Said!

Runner Up!!!!

2008-12-13T22:34:00.002-06:00

Parvathy Omanakuttan (i don't think there is a single tamil guy who didn't think of vivek and his omanakutty comedy reading this name:-P) is runner up in Miss World. Our media might not have given front page to V.P.Singh, a former PM, when he passed away (on Nov 30th), but you can be sure they will put her in your face more than you want.

NRIs: Whats in store?

2008-12-13T01:55:00.013-06:00

If the current economic situation were to get any worse, we could for the first time see mass migration back to India from US, UK and a few more advanced economies. What is the news here one might wonder, after all we have seen many desis go back home in trickles or in droves since the IT bubble burst and India started doing better for most part of the last decade. However, this time there are more reasons for this reverse migration, principally economic.

Most of the western economies are in dire straits. If you have been following my blog, i have tried and linked up a number of sources giving a clear picture of what is yet to come. The US is throwing as much money as it could print and/or borrow to fix the sinking economy, but all it is trying at this time is to keep the US economy afloat. What i am saying here is, US is trying to not lose the existing jobs. The question of creating new jobs is a whole new question. It needs fresh investment in newer fields. So, desi students graduating at this point is looking into a long dark tunnel. How soon they will see light is anybody's guess.

There aren't enough H1 visas available for all the desis who are already here and are graduating. Last year alone more than 94000 Indian students landed here for higher education. Even if we assume there will be a small percentage of students in that list who plan to go back immediately after graduation, a majority of them is in for a disappointing realization. With the new OPT rules and insufficient visas available, many would have to go back to India.

US consumption is weakest in decades and it is not going to turn around anytime soon. This had to happen sooner or later. How long can they borrow and spend? Having reached the end of their tether, they are cutting (willingly or otherwise) back on their expenditure. 70% of US GDP is based on consumption. As anyone can see, if the American consumer is cutting back, there is going to be a severe jolt (as we are seeing now) to the system. Having lost all their life savings (401K, home value etc.,) due to this credit crisis (coupled with a very expensive and penalizing healthcare system), they have finally come to their senses. Though the idea of 'Save and Invest' is great in the long run compared to the 'Borrow and Spend', this will lead to significant job losses atleast in the short run due to excess capacity. Thats because both the economy and industries are geared to satisfy the excess of American spending. Many fields including hitech on which many of us, desis, depend will not be in a position to employ the 1000s of graduates out of school, even if we assume that people who are employed won't lose their jobs. Just take a look at the number of chinese factories that are being closed because of cut backs in American spending to understand the impact.

Here is an article from From Financial Times about a trend that still might be nascent but will only grow.

The next few years will see many desis returning home, not because they want to, but because they have to. The picture of Indian IT industry, which is so one-dimensional is not a pretty either. With most of the advanced economies teetering, the Indian IT companies don't have many options to diversify. In this situation what is the best thing for us, especially in IT field, to do? Anyone with ideas?

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On a completely different topic, MUMBAI. Sad state of our society here.

Whatever your opinion about Arundathi Roy, this is a must read from her about mumbai. There are too many things that are true and relevant in there. Of course, there would be closeted bigots amongst us who want to see everything as 'us vs them' and want to sweep everything she has to say under the rug by tagging her as a bleeding heart liberal.

Economy : More Scary Shit

2008-12-12T01:59:00.005-06:00

Here is some more scary stuff about the economy. But surely something you must know (watch the first 25 mins or so),

Some bad news from India on its Industrial output here.

Also, what the guys who got it right about this crisis say about 2009? Well, here it is from fortune. If you want to be prepared, better read it. As they say, Better safe than sorry!

Slumdog Millionaire - The Genius of Rahman

2008-12-11T18:05:00.004-06:00

Now that A.R.Rahman has been nominated for Golden Globe in the Best Original Score category for Slumdog Millionaire, i thought i will post a couple of pieces here for people who still have not listened to the mind blowing soundtrack. Here is your chance for musical salvation ;)

Check the rest out too, its worth your time. I am HOOKED!